馬政府的經濟學

林佳和/政治大學法律系助理教授

繼馬總統以經濟學教訓全國人民,堅持油電雙漲、雖然又不情願的多所猶豫之後,馬政府又在基本工資議題上,展現獨特的經濟學功力。經濟學大師級的行政院管中閔政務委員,說出了最後決策方向:調漲基本工資推擠勞動成本,在景氣低迷下,恐影響就業機會,時機不宜。

奇怪的是,好像其他經濟學大師不這樣看。2006年,650位隸屬美國經濟學會(AEA)的經濟學家,包括諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Kenneth Arrow、Robert M. Solow,6位德高望重的前任會長,共同提出«提高最低工資»(Raise the Minimum Wage)呼籲,主張:適當提高最低工資,將極明顯的改善低工資勞動者及其家庭的生活,不會產生批評者所警告的負面效果,包括在景氣低迷的時候。Solow講得更明白:我真的不知道,為什麼還有那麼多人害怕最低工資,我們早已發現,擔心失業惡化,所以反對最低工資的說法,根本就不正確。普林斯頓大學經濟學教授、曾擔任美國聯邦儲備銀行副總裁的Alan Blinder說:我的想法有了戲劇性的改變:實證告訴我們,過去習以為常的理論,所謂即使是輕微的最低工資上揚,都將導致顯著的失業,顯然是錯誤的,這使得傳統經濟學智慧受到強大的質疑。Blinder已經改寫他著名的經濟學教科書,不再說提高最低工資會引發低薪者失業惡化的謬論。

即使在金融危機最高峰的2009年,美國也提高聯邦最低工資超過10%,同時的歐洲公民社會,也倡議«歐洲最低工資規範»行動,歐洲經濟學界甚至提出「最低工資應至少為各國平均薪資50%」的主張。台灣呢?19047之於45000,遠遠不到一半。別忘了,如加上嚴重低薪化,這個數字與比例無疑呈現更悲劇的社會現狀。

歐洲許多觀察者認為,當代經濟學已陷入複雜模型的泥淖,不斷否認「解除勞動管制、刻意壓低勞動條件,只是創造更負面效果」的現實。僅在意自己科學式的抽象模型,不考慮現實狀況、社會前提及人道方面的負面影響。管院士立基的勞動市場一般均衡理論,不免令人想起歐洲人戲稱的經濟神學,而它的教義,就叫做市場。馬政府經濟無能則罷,如果還想拿這般經濟學來教訓人,那就真的要敬謝不敏,以正視聽了。

自由由時報自由廣場 http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2012/new/sep/28/today-o9.htm

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