美國在南海角力中更勝一籌

2011-11-25

@林正義

歐巴馬政府重返東亞的努力,除在亞太經合會推動「泛太平洋夥伴關係」(TPP)之外,也加入東亞高峰會,並推動「東南亞海事夥伴關係」(SAMP),對中國形成經濟與戰略的牽制。「蓋洛普」在11月18日公布針對九個亞洲國家民眾的民調顯示,44%支持美國在亞洲的領導,30%支持中國的領導。在菲律賓、南韓、澳洲支持美國的領導高過於中國更達到29%。

中國注意到歐巴馬政府在結束伊拉克戰爭及自阿富汗撤軍之後的「戰略東移」,並認為美國主要目標是遏制中國。歐巴馬總統宣布美軍自2012年起將在澳洲達爾文基地部署2500人,加上美國海軍戰艦及戰機頻繁在東亞的活動。美國雖然宣稱要與中國維持「全面積極合作關係」,但兩國在南海角力的跡象愈來愈明顯。

美國國務卿希拉蕊在2010年7月公開挑戰中國的南海主張。2011年7月,中國在多年拖延之後,與東協達成落實「南海各方行為宣言」指導綱領,顯示美國的區域影響力。中國在南海片面實施保護漁資源的禁漁令,剪斷越南石油公司的電纜,警告西方石油公司不得與菲律賓或越南合作勘探油氣,驅離在中國專屬經濟區進行軍事行動的美國機艦,使中國在南海的朋友愈來愈少。

美國透過「東南亞海事夥伴關係」,將對東南亞國家的海事警察或民間單位提供訓練、裝備,強化打擊跨國威脅的能力,並透過先進的設施及技術,進行海事監視與資訊分享。美國也將主辦區域研討會,熟練標準作業程序,增多討論國際海洋法的對話空間。美國也計畫在南海地區進行多國的海事能力建構演習。

北京期待與台北合作,針對南海共同研究U形線的法律意涵、共同勘探南海油源、共同巡邏南海及捍衛主權,另一方面繼續杯葛台灣在南海的國際官方參與管道。北京在南海強勢作為,自毀多年建立起來和平崛起形象。美中南海的角力,說明台灣與中國在南海合作的風險愈來愈大。

(作者為中央研究院歐美所研究員)

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