兩岸關係階級化

2010-5-7

@徐永明

馬英九總統上台之後,兩岸關係在檯面上大幅進展:三通、陸客、陸生,乃至於數項協議之後的ECFA,尤其ECFA被視為兩岸經濟整合的大動作,政治層面上的效應各種解讀都有,但是無論支持或是反對的,都分享一個共同的假設:兩岸經濟越整合,預示了未來政治整合的條件,尤其表現在政治認同上面,甚至有「再中國化」的主張出現。

也就是從經濟而政治,表現為認同「台灣人」轉向「學作」中國人,這也符合馬英九選前所說的:營造兩岸統一的條件。而這樣的事情在台灣史上也不是沒發生過,日軍進台北城前,雖然有所謂的「台灣民主國」,不過上至唐景松大總統下至走卒,都是認為自己是大清棄民的;而二次大戰結束前,台灣人也努力在學作「日本人」;李登輝與陳水扁時代,雖然台灣意識勃興,國共兩黨的如意算盤是馬克斯的經濟決定論:如果下層經濟的依賴加深,台灣還跑得掉嗎,過段時間就會有「再中國化」的浪潮,如大江大海般向西奔流。

結果,搭配著大環境的刺激,從京奧到上海市博,大中國民族情緒不斷傳播放送,為什麼馬英九的滿意度卻不見起色,而台灣人的認同仍持續高漲,甚至表態台灣獨立的屢創新高,甚至支持ECFA公投在雙英辯論後仍居高不下,除了質疑這些調查是假的之外,有沒有「科學性」的解釋?

是時間的落後效果(lagged effect)嗎?還是誤解了兩岸經濟整合的政治作用:不是新認同的崛起,而是兩岸關係的階級化,甚至轉化了台灣政黨體系的社會基礎。最具代表性的畫面,就是中國大官來台時,國民黨的高官爭相邀宴,席上滿是財團老闆,不要說其他社會各界代表性人物少見,甚至除了經濟之外,難有其他正面論述,行政院長最引以為傲的:是跟胡錦濤喝了幾杯茅台,其他內容可想而知。

當媒體上都是兩岸關係贏家的風光畫面,作為輸家的「三中(中下階層,中南部與中小企業)」,自然會促動新一波的政黨重組,當兩岸整合的風險與機會的分配是不平等,甚至被壟斷在少數兩岸太子黨的手上時,統獨不再只是意識型態的未來訴求,而是當下生活方式的剝奪,以及階級間的歷史爭鬥。

(作者為東吳大學政治學系助理教授)

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