馬主席的總統路 三座大山

馬主席的總統路 三座大山
敗選抗爭路線——如何在社會期待與黨內利益間均衡 是高難度動作 社會基礎流失——即使連宋大陸行打擊獨派聲勢 但並未降低台灣人認同比例 兩岸關係逆轉——朝野競飆對大陸交流政策 讓民進黨在台獨戰爭上解套

徐永明/中研院社科所助研究員 【2005-08-20/聯合報/A15版/民意論壇】

當馬英九正式接任國民黨主席的位子,代表台灣的政黨競爭有機會回到基本面:以政權取得為目標,而不是以癱瘓政局為主要內容的政黨惡鬥。

這個動作對於有志二○○八年登上總統寶座的馬英九相當重要,但卻不是一條好走的路,尤其是長達八年在野的國民黨,不但喪失了資源上的優勢,甚至在社會基礎上有流失之虞,加上三二○選後的抗爭,培植了一群「沒真相,沒總統」的強硬派,讓馬英九的總統之路出現了三座大山,能不能跨越,相當程度考驗馬英九的膽識與遠見。

第一座大山是連宋兩次敗選留下來的抗爭路線,無論是「真調會」的後續、監委同意權行使的延宕,還是軍購案的杯葛,都在立法院會期開議之後考驗馬主席的決斷力,如果採持續抗爭的路線,會不會讓總統之路走向死胡同;如果採取和解妥協,黨內的反彈可以預期,會不會讓馬英九黨權的不穩定性升高。

相對的,如果民進黨政府採取攻勢,推動黨產條例、反黑金參政等一系列改革法案,馬英九如何在社會期待與黨內利益間均衡,這更是高難度的動作,也會是立法院新會期的主要戲碼。

第二座大山則是結構性的政治變遷,表現為國民黨社會基礎的逐漸流失,證諸連宋二○○四年在選票上的消退,主要來源雖然是本省籍支持度優勢的喪失,但動力卻是因為台灣人意識的昂揚,在各項調查皆有六成以上的民眾選擇「台灣人認同」。

雖然連宋的大陸行有緩和兩岸緊張的效果,某種程度打擊獨派的聲勢,但並未降低台灣人認同的比例,所謂國民黨聲勢上漲,大都來自親民黨支持者的歸隊,不一定可以樂觀地認定是藍綠板塊的遞移。加上,新一代民進黨菁英向中間選票的滲透力,代表性案例是台北縣羅文嘉對於「小馬英九」周錫瑋的壓力,納入客家與婦女成為新綠的版圖。

第三座大山則是兩岸關係的逆轉,過去兩岸戰爭一直是民進黨候選人的罩門,恐嚇戰爭的風險也是去年兩次選舉泛藍的主軸,連宋訪問大陸雖然讓民進黨政府一時進退失據,但也順勢摘除了這個火苗,現在朝野競飆的是對大陸的交流政策,長期而言卻是讓民進黨在台獨戰爭上解套,如果真的如陳水扁總統預期的,兩岸在二○○六年進行了初步的定期直航,那麼二○○八年的總統大選中,戰爭的陰影會被保護台灣利益的計算所取代,無論是台灣出超的下滑、薪資水準的不振,還是所得分配的惡化,肯定會與中國因素聯繫起來,問題不是台灣「鎖國」的假問題,而是台灣利益的界定與捍衛。

要能跨越這三座大山,馬英九得改造國民黨成為一個能捍衛台灣利益的進步性政黨,否則與民進黨的距離不會縮小。問題是馬主席的改革機運期來臨了嗎,當青年中常委的案子被否決時,看來總統大選前三年的時間對馬主席是太短了。

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