立院選舉 驚悚預告 原來是倫理劇

立院選舉 驚悚預告 原來是倫理劇
歷經民親合謠言、選舉揭曉 政黨合作成為立院主流的後續效應是──藍綠對抗的市場已經不大了

徐永明/中央研究院社科所助研究員 【2005-02-02/聯合報/A15版/民意論壇】

立法院長選舉結果揭曉,王鍾配果然獲得多數支持,成為第六屆立法院的正副院長,尤其兩個人獲得的票數分別是一二三與一二二,代表除了民進黨與台聯的委員之外,都投給了國親的正副候選人,哪邊也沒跑票,連無黨籍與無盟候選人都乖乖歸位,有點像一部預告非常驚悚的神怪片,進去看了才發現是家庭倫理劇,連副院長都會自動比院長少一票,以示崇隆。

而對這個結果的解讀大概有兩種看法,一種是傳統論:投票結果代表民進黨拔樁失敗,藍綠的界線非常嚴謹分明,親民黨回到國民黨懷抱,未來還是政黨惡鬥的立法院。

想想,王金平上屆院長選舉是兩百多票,除了國親的票之外,還囊括了民進黨與台聯的支持,那時的王金平才是跨黨派支持的立法院長,所謂政黨和解與合作,那才是典範。

這次,王金平雖然連任,票數硬是少了一百票,而且藍綠之間楚河漢界是不能越雷池一步的,所以高談政黨和解,結果卻是壁壘分明。許多觀點從這個角度判定政黨和解不可行,民進黨政府選後的姿態與說法都是白搭了,甚至還讓親民黨擠下了江丙坤,大贏家是王金平與宋楚瑜,顯然,未來泛綠內部的批判聲不會少。

不過,從多黨體制互動的架構來觀察,這個國親合作的選舉結果可能才是一個能成局的均衡點,因為原本的王江配是在連宋合選總統的前提下產生的,如果去年三月選贏了總統,國親就會走向合併之途。孰料天不如人願,連宋雖然敗選,但是泛綠兩黨也未能在立法院過半,導致一個多黨不過半的新局。

阿扁總統大概是對這個權力結構最敏感的,選後立即進行一連串布局力求避免藍綠對決,其中宋楚瑜與親民黨的角色成為關鍵性,不但決定誰是多數,更牽動國親合併的走向。誠如馬英九所說的,沒有國親合併,就沒有泛藍多數。因此,雖然宋楚瑜避走美國後,國內關於民親合的謠言甚囂塵上,但最重要的實效是頂住了國親合併的壓力。

至於鍾榮吉選上副院長不過是附帶的效果,一旦因為民親合的壓力,而有國民黨釋出權力,親民黨在這個多黨的架構下,自然有其自主的空間,更可以避免過激深藍選民的反彈。至於大老們的討逆檄文,就變得不相關了,焦點回到國民黨接下來會不會認真世代交替。

這過程中,真正在移動的是陳水扁總統與行政院長謝長廷,但是冒風險的是宋楚瑜與親民黨。至於以為得計的國民黨,則必須警覺民心風向已經變了。政黨合作成為立法院主流的後續效應是,社會上要打藍綠對抗的市場已經不大了。

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