匯率改革靠美國!

盧世祥

  新台幣今年第一季明顯升值,不少業者叫苦連天。這波台幣升值,雖有「外資」匯入因素,主要仍是央行鬆手的結果。長期以來,儘管經常帳一直順差,由於央行執行低匯價政策,每於外匯市場刻意買進美元,壓低台幣。這種操控手法,人盡皆知,美國壓力乃接踵而至。如今央行鬆手,台幣走升,坐實了央行干預匯率,卻是外匯市場邁向正常化的開端。

  長期打壓台幣,當然有利出口廠商,也讓央行大賺匯差而上繳國庫鉅款,但壞處也許更多。最基本的,台幣該升值而不升值,人民出國結匯,消費者買舶來品,廠商進口能源原物料,都付出較高成本。一般人該問:為什麼身為消費者及外匯使用者,要被迫付出較多台幣,進而在匯率上補貼張忠謀?這豈非典型的「劫貧濟富」?

  其次,打壓台幣,是行之多年的低成本、低價格、低收益、低薪資模式之一環。這一模式若真有利產業經濟,台灣如今就不會深陷產業升級困境或「高所得陷阱」,經濟成長落入一、二趴低檔。
必須強調,打壓台幣時,央行買進美元而放出等值台幣,那是有貨幣乘數效應的「強力貨幣」,導致市場資金充斥;低利率雖有好處,也有流向投機炒作等效應。央行未必是房地產暴漲原凶,但年輕人望屋興嘆,長期打壓台幣實難辭其咎。

  同時,台幣資產遭貶抑,國人寧投入外國資產,以致台灣雖「錢淹腳目」,資金卻大量外流,國際收支金融帳長期大量赤字。人民幣TRF幾在台灣釀成災難,其實也與台幣資產遭打壓有關。

  打壓台幣,央行累積龐大外匯存底。台灣非屬國際貨幣基金,或需較多外匯存底;但其金額偏高、利用效率偏低,也是不爭的事實。同時,央行挾其巨額外匯存底,以最大咖在市場「喊起喊落」,顯與經濟自由化背道而馳。至於個別廠商,台幣易貶難升,財務長匯率判斷由央行越俎代庖,也「很奇怪耶」。

  台灣不能自外國際變局,匯率因素列入日常決策運作考量,產業經濟才能茁壯;外匯不受不必要、不合理干預,讓市場機能充分發揮,方是正道。如今受美國壓力,外匯市場逐步邁向正軌,凸顯了在改革之路,一如當年政治從威權走向民主,美國是台灣向上提升的可敬畏友與助力。

(作者是資深新聞工作者)

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Men can also invest in garter belts, stockings and even bras — or, as Frank Costanza would call them, “manssieres.”Istanbul stands at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, a beguiling mix of modernity and antiquity. Nishane, Turkey’s first luxe artisanal fragrance brand, Longchamp Sale celebrates the metropolis’ mystical allure. “Our line reflects the spirit of this old city as the bridge between cultures,” says Murat Katran, cofounder of the brand with Mert Güzel. “One cannot conclude this is an Oriental collection, nor can anyone say that this is truly a Western line. This is exactly what Coach Bags Istanbul stands for.”Katran, an actor-turned-steel exporter, teamed up with fellow entrepreneur and fragrance aficionado Güzel, a coffee-table-book publisher, to launch the line in 2013. “We knew that we had to come up with an original idea and we had to carry this out in such a way that the quality and the Longchamp Bags originality would amaze everyone,” says Katran. 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John Legend will perform at the grand michael kors outlet online opening and cut the ceremonial ribbon. -While we’re still waiting for Ellen DeGeneres to debut her clothing brand, ED, she’s dropped another bombshell: ED will team up with Gap Kids to bring us the Gap Kids x ED collaboration — landing in stores and online Aug. 17. -Joe Fresh and J.C. Penney michael kors purses are no longer a package deal. The two brands have decided to part ways after a two-year partnership, forcing Joe Fresh to produce its own stand-alone stores. “Joe Fresh wasn’t what the customer at J.C. Penney wanted,” a retail analyst divulged. -Andy Dunn, the founder and CEO of Bonobos since its creation Coach Outlet Store Online in 2007, is stepping down from the company and assuming the role of executive chairman instead. Former Coach president Francine Della Badia will take on the role of CEO instead. -Have you caught wedding fever yet? 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Finally some foot relief for Carrie Bradshaws everywhere: A rocket scientist, an astronaut and an orthopedist are reinventing the high heel.Los Angeles-based start-up Thesis Couture is creating the coach factory outlet world’s first “high performance stilettos,” a high heel made from high-grade polymer specifically designed to be dramatically comfier than regular Jimmy Choos.Founder and CEO Dolly Singh was fed up with heels wrecking her feet as she pounded the factory floors as the head of talent acquisition at SpaceX, the aerospace manufacturer.“If I Coach Outlet Store was to continue to [wear heels] in the same level as I did in my 20s, I would literally end up with super deformed, damaged feet,” said Singh, 36.So she applied her start-up know-how and hired a team of designers, techies and engineering whizzes to improve high-heel science.“In a world where we michael kors bags build rockets, better shoes shouldn’t be an impossibility,” Singh said.Traditionally, the structure of a high heel relies on a single metal shank running along the sole of the shoe providing a very stiff — and uncomfortable — platform that puts 75 percent of the pressure on the ball of the foot.Singh and her Longchamp Bag team are trying to adjust the distribution of load so that the ball of the foot carries 50 percent of the weight and the heel carries the other 50 percent such that the impact — and with it, the pain — is lessened.Thesis Couture’s fabricator, Matt Thomas, previously developed high-end wearable gear coach outlet for the US military and US Navy SEALS, and encouraged them to move away from metal and instead to try plastics.“These are polymers that stop bullets, they’re not going to break in a high heel,” said Singh.The new design is created from ballistic-grade polymer and black thermoplastic polyurethane (similar to what car Longchamp Outlet tires are made of), which cushion the foot. 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