如果泛綠過半

【徐永明】 / 中國時報 A15/時論廣場

如果泛綠在立委選舉過半,當然是泛藍陣營的一大挫敗,但是與三月總統選舉結果相比較,這個立委選舉結果對於藍營衝擊其實並不像總統那麼大。無論泛藍是否仍維持國會多數,要能取得組閣權,大概就如藍營立委的老實說,那得先修憲才行,否則無論立委選舉結果如何,對於行政權的歸屬已沒有影響了,泛藍還是好好打定主意作四年的在野黨,才是務實的路子。

如果泛綠過半,絕對是綠營的一大勝利,無論是在立委選舉版圖的擴張,還是對於未來立法議程的控制,都是前所未有的經驗。民進黨向來在立委選得最不好,得票率遠遠落後於總統、縣市首長,也是最後一個過半的,代表民進黨在社會部門的滲透力,果然因為執政優勢而有成長,可以說總統選舉讓民進黨有了政治權力,但是立委選舉才是社會影響力的指標。

如果泛綠過半,當然會影響許多政治菁英個人的前途,但是長遠而言,則是對台灣政黨體系有重新排隊的效果:國、親、新三黨的合併鐵定會加速,政黨領袖的堅持反成大石頭,等著被選舉的力量沖刷,政治前途未卜;但是,藍綠版圖的變化太快速了,泛藍陣營並不存在繼續分裂的空間,卻有政治跳船的動機,選前有配票爭議,選後絕對會有跑票問題。

如果泛綠過半,卻是民進黨考驗的開始,所謂執政與改革的衝突會出現,具體表現在「正名」的議題上,過去在野,正名、制憲是理所當然;現在執政,光是國營企業正名就有一長列的成本分析,更不要提外館正名的國際性操作難度,這解釋了為何「正名」是一個好的選舉語言,卻成為民進黨執政改革的新難題,陳總統可以透過一個宣示,處理了星期天藍綠遊行的議題主導權,但必須面對兩年承諾的檢證。

如果泛綠過半,台聯變成花瓶的危機也因此獲得紓解,星期天的遊行指出了一個新出路,不再是聯合王金平為首的國民黨本土派,扮演兩個主流本土政黨的一翼,這個政黨體系本土化的規劃,已經因為民進黨推出自己的立法院長人選,變得此路不通了。新的路線是,堅守激進的位置,對執政的民進黨政府進行施壓,充分利用民進黨在執政與改革上的衝突,透過政策的推進與實踐,放大政治上的影響力,無論台聯要不要扮演這個角色,都有這樣一個政治高地存在。

如果泛綠過半,北京當局當然還是可以不甩民進黨政府,繼續維持冷和的兩岸關係,等待泛藍重新執政,只不過這四年要常被島內的「去中國化」騷擾,為二○○六,○八的憲改議程擔心,能不能順心如意地經營二十年的發展機運期,有一大部分的參數控制,要仰賴華盛頓,顯然,這與所謂統一的遠景,有了相當的落差。

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