「藍綠平盤」的政治新格局

【徐永明】 / 中國時報 A15/時論廣場

這次大選以陳總統在台南遭槍擊為分水嶺,之前是「反扁」對上「挺扁」的戰爭,之後則是以扁個人安危所帶來的選情變化。很顯然的,陳水扁是這次大選最主要的主角,不但要抗衡連宋的合作,更需為了推動公投來付出相當的政治成本,所以當連宋揚言要發動選舉訴訟時,陳水扁時代的刻印效果已經形成:效應是連宋的時期尚未展開就面臨結束,連帶地李登輝也是夕陽無限好。

無論喜不喜歡,這次選舉結果深化了這個效果,與其徒勞在選舉輸贏的紛爭上,泛藍必須重新探詢台灣民意的走向,摒棄短線的選舉操作,認真面對台灣主流民意的替換過程。因為這是一個巨大的過程。對照兩千年選舉的統獨對立,這次是在爭搶本土派的神主牌,原因是民意在變化,往一個新興國族認同移動,未來泛藍世代交替的領導階層,必須嘗試掌握這個脈動,否則再多的基本盤來揮霍,也無法換來一個選舉的勝利。

再者,輸了反而是揚棄「藍大綠小」這個虛偽面具的絕佳時機,基本盤理論是一個懶惰的藉口,不但被視為連宋合的黏著劑,也是選戰過程中自我感覺良好的迷幻藥,搭配上民調數字的偏差,以及民調專家的再三保證,泛藍的政策眼光在基本盤上打轉,除了穩固之外還是保本,完全無視於世事的變化,也無意於新局的開創。

所以,這次選舉不過是揭櫫了「藍綠平盤」的政治新格局,這是過去四年陳水扁執政的最大變化,原本泛綠在南台灣的相對優勢發展為絕對,而在中台灣的相對貧弱轉為均勢,國內政治的意義相當豐富,代表傳統國民黨主導性體制的永久性崩潰,也意味著新型態政治競爭的崛起:以這次選舉勝負論,雖然差距之小如丟一個銅板的隨機性,但是結構性的變化卻是深遠的。

不過,在泛綠慶幸選戰險勝的當頭,不能迴避兩題公投無效的政治後果,雖然陳總統連任成功,但是公投民主在台灣的實踐卻是遭到重大的打擊。如果泛綠真的是有心於公投路線的經營,並想要擺脫選舉操弄的批評,必須嚴肅面對公投失敗的內外效應。

對內,必須重新檢討公投制度設計與立法,透過年底立委席次過半的追求,來建構一個可行有效的公投機制。對外,阿扁選舉過關不代表公投過關,無效公投結果,無法提供一個有力的數據,來反駁國際社會先前對台灣推行公投的批評,之後,更無法杜絕國際對於台灣未來公投的干預,這是一連串爭議的起始,而非休止。

此時,民進黨政權必須誠實面對公投的失敗:代表一個過半數的總統卻無法形成多數的共識,這絕對是未來施政的困境來源,選舉無效訴訟不過是一個開端而已。

因此,扁政府在慶祝勝選之餘,不要忽視了另一個半數的心聲,民主體制除了選舉的征服之外,還有許多共識形成的空間,公投民主應該是一個好的形成共識的機制,也是未來公投應該生產的內容。

(作者為中央研究院社會科學研究所助研究員)

回應

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World Cup

Benefits and risks. Chen Xiaoyang noted, new balance 580 Brazilian inflation rate is currently 6.19 percent. A large influx of tourists during the World Cup in Brazil, will push the Brazilian food, accommodation and transportation prices. This accounts for only three Brazilian inflation index proportion nearly 10%, pushing up inflation 0.35 percent, when inflation is likely to exceed the government's target ceiling of 6.5% management. Although the Brazilian government has taken a number of measures to converse 1970 impose restrictions electricity and gasoline and other energy prices, but it is difficult to control inflation during the World Cup. If inflation continues to rise, the Brazilian economy will be worse.

MMMhand inConverse

World Cup coming up first converse 1970 superstar Neymar course, he was the most brilliant Brazil star, and he will debut in the World Cup opener, thousands of new balance 580 viewers will see him on TV, I think this is a test for him, if he can withstand the pressure, he can achieve very, very high level.

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