憲政割喉戰 論述「非常說法」

憲政割喉戰 論述「非常說法」
泛藍新憲三部曲 把球拋回綠營 雙方決戰關鍵 看誰把立場、認同表述清楚

徐永明/中央研究院社科所助研究員 【2003-11-16/聯合報/A15版/民意論壇】

當連戰昨天在台南造勢晚會上提出「新憲三部曲」作為泛藍的憲改主張時,這次總統大選已經由所謂地方基層的割喉戰,一下子轉移到憲政割喉這個層次,藍綠雙方比的已經不是支持,或反對新憲公投了,而是在時程、速度,乃至版本內容上角力,公投法的爭議在這樣的戰略轉進下,是不足為道了,所謂鳥籠公投法已經被這陣新憲強風席捲而去,可預期公投法寬鬆立法會是第一個政治效應。

泛藍拿回議題主導權

這裡,針對民調消長而來的調整動力,實在令人驚嘆,昨天在台南力陳快速公投新憲的泛藍,已經不是上個星期還在台中擔憂公投新憲會引來戰爭的國親了,顯然泛藍戰略思維上有重要的轉變,在拉抬選戰氣勢的要求下,主動提出憲改原則,挑戰民進黨選前不談實質內容的立場,以求拿回選戰議題的主導權,泛綠引領風騷的樂觀態勢,立刻遇到相當的挑戰,這是第二個選戰效應。

再者,民主選舉對形成共識的效用,則是出乎預期的,仔細檢視泛藍新憲十大原則:偏總統制、單一席次兩票選制、國會席次銳減任期四年、募兵、十八歲投票權,這些都與過去泛綠的主張相同,立場有別的僅在於總統的絕對多數決、不在籍投票,所謂中華民國主權獨立,則很像民進黨修正後的台獨黨綱。顯然,選票競爭雖然產生一些亂象,民主的機制卻是能形成政治共識的,調整過程中,政治人物的動作有時突兀,但不妨礙台灣透過選舉形成對未來的共同看法,這是第三個,也是最重要的民主效應。

泛綠得整合不同版本

至於這個新憲公投的說法,能不能拉抬泛藍的聲勢,尤其是民調上的壓力,則有待觀察,不過立即的衝擊是泛綠陣營在憲改內容上的提出。雖然陳總統昨晚在台東的回應,強調新憲公投的教育過程,不可草率為之,不過仍未擺脫在選前提出民進黨版本的壓力,這個新憲公投的球已經回到陳總統手上,如何儘速整合泛綠既有各個版本的異同,會成為下一階段輿論的焦點。

至於,泛藍內部也不是沒有隱憂,雖然連戰強勢提出憲改原則,但是會不會疏離掉核心的選民與幹部的認同,則是必須注意的,雖然這些藍色選民不可能轉而支持陳水扁,卻可能失去動力,尤其國、親兩黨在總統制下,行政院長為幕僚長的方向,是否共識已成有待驗證。

議題將聚焦國家定位

當然,對中間選民會有耳目一亮的效果,看來泛藍也是有一襲改革新衣的。不過如果二月政黨提版本,之前一月有公投辯論的提議,那這次選舉的主軸勢必脫離原本泛藍的規劃,以民生、經濟、教改為主軸,以二次政黨輪替為號召,而會往政治議題,乃至國家定位的方向快速聚焦,接踵而來的論述壓力,不會是短期選戰策略可以負荷的,尤其是許多今是昨非的說法,絕對會成為選戰文宣的「非常說法」。

所以,論述的準備會是藍、綠雙方決戰的關鍵,誰的立場、認同清楚,誰的時程規劃公平,內容革新,甚至誰的心態與姿態與民眾最接近,都會影響下一階段憲政割喉戰的勝敗,現在比的已經不是地方政治人物的表態了,而是關於台灣前景的行動與論述。

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