漢光演習之外

林正義/中央研究院歐美所研究員

自馬政府執政以來,2013年度漢光演習與往年不同。在兩岸關係快速發展之下,大規模、實彈射擊、反登陸作戰反而成為今年漢光軍事演習的焦點。台海兩岸簽署18項協議,諸多政府部會已與中國政府建立合作的聯繫管道,國人唯獨不期待國防部與對岸合作,或者是連國防也休兵。

國防部要在兩岸關係緩和及馬政府「政治正確」的思維下,將中國視為假想敵,並批評共軍對台軍事威脅,因而需要採取積極的對應,並非易事。2008年以來,國軍在國人的認知中,是台灣天然災害發生時搶災救難的主角,反而忽略了國軍最主要的任務是,防範、準備因應來自中國的國防威脅。

馬英九總統的國家安全有三大支柱,除追求兩岸和解制度化、外交休兵國際模範生角色之外,只有國防力量的強化才是最堅實的後盾。中國可以對香港特首人選設定「愛國愛港」、「不能與中央對抗」的框架,若台灣沒有國防的建設,總統也可能變成特首。馬總統對史丹福大學的教授說「台灣與美國在確保區域和平及穩定上,享有共同價值與利益」。若是如此,歐巴馬政府對中國軍力威脅的評估與因應,採取交往與避險的戰略,就值得馬政府學習。

馬總統在澎湖漢光演習難得指出中國「透過金錢、美色及其它收攏人心等作為,無所不用其極地滲透,官兵一定要提高警覺,各級部隊應加強相關心理建設及實際教育貫徹保密作為、防敵滲透情蒐」。現役國軍將領與中級軍官成為共諜的少數案例,加上一般國人國防意識的薄弱,已成為國防安全的挑戰。

國軍苦思如何以「創新及不對稱作戰」,因應中國的軍事崛起與兩岸軍力失衡。然而,苦思之外,苦練耐勞才是硬道理,也需要有國防資源的配合。否則,戰機、軍艦訓練時數減少,必然衝擊戰力的提升。台灣的國防經歷重大的變革,國防部募不到兵到東南沙守土,南沙學生的研習營卻供不應求。中國對外威脅能量愈來愈高,在東海與南海的軍事活動頻繁,若台海緊張再現,屆時將是台灣防衛能力的最大考驗。

※本文刊登於2013.04.19自由時報自由廣場〈三軍統帥更要提高警覺〉http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/apr/19/today-o7.htm,此為原稿全文。

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