美國總統選戰與台美關係

林正義/中央研究院歐美所研究員

在美國共和黨總統候選人羅姆尼與民主黨總統歐巴馬第一次辯論之後,羅姆尼在多家民調支持度平均之後,以不到一個百分點,首次超前歐巴馬。與2004、2008年同時期兩黨民調相比較,2004年小布希以4%勝過參議員凱瑞,2008年歐巴馬以6.7%超過馬侃。雖然美國總統辯論仍有一場,但2012年美國大選不會是歐巴馬當選的定局。

美國總統影響對台政策的執行。共和黨尼克森上台,推動與中國的關係正常化,對台灣支持大幅度降低。卡特總統忽略台灣安全的重要性。雷根總統在發表八一七公報後,透過多項途徑降低該公報對台灣的傷害。老布希總統在選戰期間宣布出售150架F16A/B給台灣,但落敗給柯林頓。1996年3月初台灣總統民選期間,中國對台試射飛彈,共和黨總統候選人杜爾強烈警告中國一旦動武,美國一定會協助台灣,柯林頓總統隨後派遣兩艘航空母艦作戰群至台海地區。小布希總統下台之前三個月最後一次的對台軍售,留下未能宣布出售F16C/D的敗筆。

歐巴馬對台灣未能派遣部長層級官員訪問台灣,雖宣布對台免簽,但早在小布希政府,即已討論此一安排。歐巴馬在台海兩岸緩和之際,雖兩度宣布對台軍售,即使在參眾議員強烈要求出售F16C/D之下,卻仍保持緘默。

共和黨總統候選人羅姆尼及其幕僚群,一向批判歐巴馬在中國問題上過於軟弱。羅姆尼重申如勝選將把中國列為「匯率操縱國」,而且告知美國選民選擇歐巴馬,意味選擇美國走向衰退。2012年共和黨政綱強調「台灣未來需要透過對話和平解決,且能為台灣人民所同意」。共和黨也強烈支持,及時出售防衛性武器給台灣。羅姆尼一旦當選,陳水扁、馬英九買不到的F16C/D給台灣,應會有所突破。

中國外交部發言人表示希望中美關係,不會受到美國共和、民主總統候選人及大選政治的影響。相較於北京不希望見到羅姆尼當選,馬政府採取中立及密切觀望的態度。在兩岸關係改善之下,馬政府不願意採取被中國視為大幅度國防建軍的行動。台灣若要強化長期的國防能力,羅姆尼的當選,將會給台灣較大的外部推力與壓力。

※本文刊登於20121019自由時報,此為原稿全文。
http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2012/new/oct/19/today-o2.htm

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