新憲新賽局

徐永明】 / 中國時報 A15/時論廣場

當陳水扁總統在民進黨黨慶上提出催生台灣新憲的時間表時,大概有不同時程的效應可以評估。不過值得注意的是,從在野黨,美、中兩強權,乃至媒體、盟友台聯黨的反應都是相當戒慎冷靜的。就如媒體民調顯示的,這並非當務之急。但是當這個時間表攤開來時,台灣政治發展的軌道就逸出了原本以政黨輪替為主軸的選舉民主,而是進入了一個新的賽局:公民投票成為另一個民主的管道,而新憲成為政治發展的目標。

新憲說立即的衝擊在於公投法的內涵。上個會期朝野有意識地將公投議題局限在公共政策議題,而泛藍以馬英九為首更將公投發動權圈在公民連署上,排除了行政機關的發動權,乃至諮詢性公投的空間。但是新憲一說聯繫到人民複決的管道,這時候公投法的制訂就必須考量到新憲複決的空間與人民參與的機會,甚至重新在憲政的高度來檢視公投法的位階。公民投票已經不再是坪林形象的公投,而是新憲複決的公投了。

中期視之,對於總統大選的議題設定效果相當顯著,並不只是表現在近日媒體的版面與政治人物的言論而已,而是將總統大選的焦點從既有的「社會包圍政治」的議程回歸到總統層次的主權、憲政,乃至正名等象徵性議題。國親領導者的不願回應,短期可能是策略正確的,但是持續的沈默會導致「總統形象的破壞(not presidential)」,陷入中共要不要回應的類似難題。

長期而論,催生台灣新憲的確是在改變現狀,尤其是調整美、中、台不對等的三角關係上。過去陳水扁就任初期的「四不一沒有」是一個自我設限以交換安全的承諾,藉此來穩定政權交替的局勢;目前爭取進入新的任期時,這反而成為一個新的鳥籠,美國不時祭出這段咒語來拘束阿扁的言行,在野與對岸也跟著合誦一片靡靡之音。新憲說的確有掙脫這個緊身衣的效果,如同台灣正名運動般,不單將台獨除魅化,也讓所謂「兩國論入憲」的危機變得不相干。

新憲運動搭配公民投票原本不是台灣民主化走的道路。過去是協商式的轉型,透過一次次的國是會議,朝野菁英合作分期付款地修憲,來達到實質制憲的效果,所以有現在選舉民主的架構。但是目前懷念威權的氣氛證明這個選舉民主無法解決根本的難題,當民主窄化為選舉時,政權更替不過是不同政黨集團的權力分配問題,民眾的無力感轉為對民主體制的質疑,這都不是政黨輪替的次數所能回應的,也不是所謂新舊政府的外衣能解決的。

因此,新憲運動很可能成為台灣民主轉型的新標的,但也可能淪為選舉花招之一。這除了取決於政治領導的方向之外,公民投票能否成為台灣民眾的新興民主參與管道,大概是最主要的動力。

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