合理的油價是多少?

紀駿傑/東華大學族群關係與文化學系教授

一公升石油究竟應該賣多少錢才是合理的呢?

最近幾週來油價不斷攀升且屢創新高,讓眾多民眾叫苦連天。油價攀升的確對民生造成直接的影響,同時也會帶動其它物價高升,間接造成民眾經濟上更大的負荷。然而,36元的油價相對於多年前二十幾元的油價雖然是高了許多,但是這樣的油價真的算「高」嗎?

答案當然有許多,端視我麼從什麼角度來回答此問題。石油在英文的一種說法為「化石燃料」,因為它是歷經幾百萬年以上層積而化石化的生物腐蝕物,以我們目前使用的速度而言,它是不可再生的能源,且一般估計地球的剩餘使用量最多只有50年左右。光是從這個角度來看,一公升石油的價格只比在超市買一公升瓶裝水貴一倍這樣的事實,其實是凸顯了油價的過於低廉。

當然,石油的問題不僅止於此,當前全球最關切的環境議題──全球暖化,有一大半是因為燃燒石油、煤炭等化石燃料所造成的,更加上開採、運送、提煉等過程均容易產生污染與重大生態災難,如幾年前英國石油公司在墨西哥灣造成的油污浩劫。美國內政部前幾天剛批准了蜆殼石油公司在阿拉斯加北極圈內開採石油的準備工作許可,此舉激起了環保團體的強烈批評,因為此區是美國少數僅存整片自然生態區,石油開採必定會對當地產生難以回復的嚴重後果,更會對當地依弩特原住民的生活與生計造成重大影響。

因為沒有計算生產成本與使用後果而被過度壓低的油價,加上政治力的影響,也是造成如風力發電等可再生能源無法快速發展的結果。例如德國遍佈風力發電機,原因便是這些由民間、村落或企業設置的發電機組可以方便合理地賣給電力事業,但在台灣由於電力配送的壟斷,使得民間投資的意願與效果大為受限。美國發動備受評擊地伊拉克戰爭,主要目的也是為了穩定其低廉的石油供應來源。

當然,石油提煉供給業在台灣幾乎是壟斷事業,這些壟斷事業的問題也是需要被討論批評的。但是長期而言,我們也必須站在地球環境以及後代子孫的立場思考,究竟怎樣的石油價格才是合理的?

http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2012/new/sep/7/today-o10.htm

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