選舉民主的計算

【徐永明】 / 中國時報 A15/時論廣場

蔣經國熱最近在台灣有復甦的現象,不但泛藍的政治人物喜歡牽拖關係,經濟不景氣可以懷念到蔣氏的高瞻遠矚,社會變遷的衝擊也需要回歸到美好的強人統治──雖然現實世界中所謂的「十大建設」不是重化工業外移、大船廠重整,就是東西兩大港滯工,所謂的「漢賊不兩立」早已束諸高閣,流行的是直航又直飛。顯然這個伏流中懷舊的成分居多,展望未來的機會不大。

但是不可否認,同時代的獨裁政治中,大概只有蔣氏家族仍在民主化後有一定的影響力,菲律賓的馬可仕,韓國的朴正熙家族而今安在哉,更遑論後代的安生立命。而台灣則是不同的景象,蔣氏子孫初生時的奶粉品牌成為媒體的焦點,蔣氏的威權經驗不但獲得部分輿論的認同,更成為國民黨奪回政權的重要號召,這也跟東歐前共黨改頭換面,用二代新面孔作第二次政黨輪替,極力撇清過去的共產經驗有很大的不同。

顯然,當時蔣經國作了許多重要的決定,影響台灣至今的發展與限制。他有多重的面孔,掌權初期是情治大權一把抓,許多白色恐怖的案子於焉而生,中期則是打壓本土的民主運動,美麗島整肅、林宅血案、江南案是國際矚目的大案,晚年在反對勢力挑戰下,則換上溫和的面貌容許反對黨成立,自稱也是台灣人,決定透過選舉競爭來維持政權。

這個策略的轉換對於蔣氏在台灣的評價有相當的影響,也解釋了許多人喜歡談晚年的蔣經國來迴避恐怖的鎮壓情事,甚至連反對運動的領導者也會感念。這大概是獨裁政治最令人羨慕的地方,只要有些許的退讓,就可以贏得民心,甚至讓被鎮壓的痛哭流涕,讓合作的(c ooperator)自以為是高尚事業。

其中,蔣氏關於選舉開放的計算至為重要,最大的影響在於選舉作為台灣政治發展的內涵:這時所謂民主就是選舉,投票選人,從里長到總統通通要直選,成為台灣民主的重要意象,帶動了選舉產業的發達,除了選票動員、選戰策略、政治版圖之外,所謂的公民的責任卻少被提及,重大的政治難題如認同、主權、兩岸、憲政等也被候選人、政黨間的合縱連橫所排擠。結果是,台灣已經進行到第三次總統直選了,「一邊一國」vs.「一個中國」這個主權問題還會是競選主軸。

這不禁令人懷疑民主選舉的效能問題。如果選人的民主只是讓反對運動疲於選舉,陷在選票競爭的漩渦中,職位的選舉競爭只是在作權力輪替,而無法解決基本的政治難題時,那就需要對這個歷史性的選舉計算作深入的反省。

是不是在選舉之外,能有新的民主出路,不單只是政治權力的黨派爭奪,而是能根本地建立民主的共識與價值,這大概是蔣經國的選舉計算對於台灣民主的最大挑戰。

回應

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