階級本色

【徐永明】 / 中國時報 A15/時論廣場

從過去選舉研究的經驗中總結,向來有一個藍綠支持階級分化的印象,泛綠的支持者多屬於中下農工、南部、閩南、涵蓋年齡偏高,以及年輕的族群,而泛藍的支持者則多為中上白領,北部、中壯年齡層、外省等。表現在選戰的場合上,泛綠的場子多是檳榔、拖鞋,而泛藍則是不同的景象,具代表性的是大安森林公園的西裝與皮鞋,所以很容易有一個結論:泛藍是中上階層的政黨,泛綠是中下階層的,其中有族群這條線深刻地劃過去。

這個「檳榔和拖鞋、西裝及皮鞋」的觀察來自於政治學者吳乃德的一篇研究論文的標題,他發現:除了我們熟知的省籍族群成分外,台灣政黨支持的分野還有隱晦不明的階級面向,因為當台灣的社會流動取決於教育機會,而外省籍民眾有較高的教育成就時,就會造成兩個族群的階級差異,此時省籍與階級是相關的,也與政黨的支持趨於一致。

經濟學者駱明慶的研究從另一個角度豐富了這個觀察的意涵。根據戶口普查的資料,他推論出在「前教改」的大學入學管制時期,外省男性進大學的機會是同年齡本省男性的二至三倍以上,至於培養出許多泛綠政治領袖的台大,其差距更大,顯示入學機會是有省籍差距的。換句話說,被低學費政策補貼的機會除了取決於考試表現外,背後還有階級與族群的因素,至於廣設大學後是否有改善這個差異,則是目前教改爭議中,被忽略掉的「政治不正確」指標。

問題是,族群與階級這兩條社會分歧的關係似乎變得不簡單了,尤其在民進黨執政後產生了許多令人困惑的現象。我們發現以拚經濟之名,黨政高層與財團、企業主的來往密集,過去幾場婚禮的冠蓋雲集可見一斑,社運人士納悶以前老戰友的面貌似乎模糊不清了。而走街頭的景象也不一樣,不再是反閱兵廢惡法、國會全面改選、總統直選的自由化、民主化訴求,現在多是社會團體如教師、農漁會、國營事業勞工、大學生的就業、補貼與福利,這顯然與八零年代的新興社會運動有著典範上的斷裂。

於是,當泛藍喊出「富人國、窮人國」,而社運團體推出「泛紫聯盟」時,似乎是一個階級與政治代表重組的階段,階級訴求隱然要取代民主化成為下一階段政治議程的主流,而傳統的族群、統獨被視為解構的對象,一個台灣有兩個世界,過去是省籍,現在是階級。

值得觀察的是,這個階級政治的動力為何,是一時的選戰策略,還是全球化壓力下都會中產階級的焦慮表現?其政治後果是藍綠政治的重組,是省籍意識的借屍還魂,還是只是既有利益的保衛戰?這在在對台灣的政治領袖提出新的命題,也將會決定未來總統選舉的面貌。

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