大選對決是社會包圍兩岸

2011-08-12

@徐永明

記得前年執政的國民黨積極推動與中國簽訂ECFA,除兩岸的經濟關係與政治交往的提升之外,當時還有一個如意算盤:是將ECFA的簽訂視為政府的重大政績,希望能在去年底五都選舉,乃至明年總統∕立委併選時,對執政黨的候選人有拉台的效果,尤其將ECFA打成選舉議題,迫使原本反對ECFA的民進黨候選人必須表態,以為至少在北部都會區,能以兩岸關係的議題來操作選情,動員選票。

這是個典型以對外關係來影響內部選舉的教科書案例。無論是出兵伊拉克,還是加入歐元,都會對個別國家的執政黨有政治加分(rallying effects)的效果,不過上次就北二都國民黨的選情來看,ECFA似乎不敵花系列,高層次的兩岸議題完全被地方性的治理能力所邊緣化,是台灣選民水準不夠?還是兩岸議題已經失靈了?

過去,兩岸關係的認同與統獨一直是台灣內部政治分化與競爭的主軸。台灣人vs.中國人的認同議題,不僅有強大的動員能量,一時「愛台灣」成為政治人物與政黨的競相標榜的價值:而國家選擇層次的統獨議題,則重組了台灣政黨體系的光譜;那麼兩岸互動更密切之後的ECFA,為何在選舉市場上乏人問津,而原本興致勃勃的國民黨也改弦易幟,除了五都是地方選舉的限制外,台灣民眾對於兩岸關係的認知與價值是否有重大改變?

關鍵在於,國民黨主政下的兩岸關係,已經不是認同取向與統獨選擇的問題,而是人欲橫流的「特殊利益關係」,ECFA除了不言名的政治意涵,內容多是關稅減免的問題,對岸的一句「讓利」,充分表明目前兩岸關係事事必言利的特性,無論是省長與書記帶來的採購團,還是文化部長提倡的文化ECFA,都在一個「經濟決定論」的指導下進行:經濟越依賴,政治易整合。

問題在於,兩岸的經濟關係,如果淪為特殊利益關係,那麼兩岸關係對台灣內部的影響可能就不是傳統藍綠架構可以解釋的,甚至是一個重組藍綠版圖的重要推手,因為ECFA帶來的財富重分配與階級關係的深化,可不會乾乾淨淨地沿著族群、藍綠與南北來切割,而受益者與受害者的相對剝奪感,可能會取代傳統的認同與統獨,成為未來兩岸關係發展的後座力(backfire),這也解釋了為何ECFA在上次台灣五都選舉失靈,而在明年初大選前景不明的原因。

(作者為東吳大學政治系助理教授)

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