後ⅩⅩ黨時代

【徐永明】 / 中國時報 A15/時論廣場

最近因為大選將近,所以許多選舉語言出爐不奇怪,但是跟著有許多預言式的詛咒也絡繹浮現了。其中「後民進黨時代」是泛藍的新詞彙,暗示總統大選阿扁會落選,民進黨此後將一蹶不振,而未來台灣政治將是連、宋共治的雙首長制,一個美麗新世界啊!

這是一個樂觀的看法,除了反映對於奪權的熱切心態外,也顯現一廂情願的政治規劃。總統大選的確會影響個別政治人物的前途與前景,選舉結果對於政黨體系的發展也有調節的效果,阿扁若是連任失敗,民進黨會遇到重大的衝擊,領導階層會有一番調整,但是民進黨延續反對運動的理想與路線卻不一定會變更,因為像是公投、非核、民營化與黨政軍退出媒體,這些議題雖然在立法院胎死腹中,但是社會支持度正穩定成長中。

就選舉的態勢而言,泛藍比較像是個「選票上」的執政黨,除了在人事上進行整合外,少見新鮮的議題,連宋合成立當天的三大訴求:終結黑金,政府改造與兩岸穩定,聽起來似曾相識,原來是上次總統選舉民進黨的政見。沿用過去反對黨的議題,顯見國、親作為在野黨的怠惰,難道只想趁著反扁的情緒拿回政權。

這樣的權力觀點,反而讓所謂「後民進黨」的觀點令人心驚。如果民進黨不存在了,這個社會還有誰能提供進步的政治議題?如果兩個在野黨心態上是回到過去的美好時光,汲汲於營造權力的配置,那麼台灣前進的道路在那裡?執行力是重要的,但是沒有方向感的執行力不過是個亂流。

相對的,民進黨雖然執政,但是在選票上卻是個挑戰者,不斷透過議題來切割泛藍的選票聯盟,搖擺的中間選民成為膜拜對象。但是如果連任成功,從立委的三成五,縣市長的四成選票擴張到過半,阿扁大概是反對運動第一人,也是繼李登輝之後,能獨力有過半選票基礎的政治人物,這對於民進黨的成長是跨過了門檻,而對於台灣政治發展,則是新主流的出現,影響所及,國、親兩黨的命運將會是大不同。

的確,透過選舉結果來模擬政黨命運是刺激的,聽起來像是算命,但卻是社會各部門所關心的利害計算。但是從台灣政治發展的高度來評價,一個會受選舉勝負衝擊的政黨是正常的,但是一個會因為敗選而失去生存意義的政黨則是病態的。或許這是一個好的標準,來評價各政黨的歷史角色,然後會更清楚,「後」哪一個政黨是一個進步的方向,或是一個歷史的選擇。

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