歐胡會與台灣的挑戰

2010-01-21

@林正義

中國領導人胡錦濤在春節之前、沒有夫人劉永清陪同之下對美國進行國事訪問。美國總統歐巴馬特別禮遇安排兩次晚宴,但美國主要媒體針對胡錦濤到訪的社論,卻是如寒冬的刺骨。「紐約時報」社論提到:國宴及21響禮炮是短暫的,歐巴馬應告知一項訊息,若中國想獲得大國般的尊敬,行事就需表現出負責任的態度。

台灣不是歐巴馬與胡錦濤會談的主要議題,但胡錦濤與歐巴馬會談仍提到,台海「兩岸雙方都反對『台獨』、堅持『九二共識』」。國民黨反對台獨可以理解,但國共聯合反對台獨,卻易令人疑慮。這與馬英九總統宣示:「台灣的未來,都掌握在我們二千三百萬人手中,由我們自己來決定」,有出入之處。美方在美中聯合聲明中,歡迎台海兩岸達成「經濟合作架構協議」,期待兩岸增加經濟、政治及其他領域的對話與互動。這項立場對台灣內部反對ECFA的陣營多少形成制約力,但也反映積極監督的必要性。

中國在美國金融危機之後大肆併購美國公司,對美投資快速增加,總金額達到120億美金。根據「華盛頓郵報」與美國ABC新聞公司的民調,顯示61%美國民眾視中國經濟威脅到美國人的工作機會,認為是創造機會只有29%。若連美國對中國投資小心、設限,台灣對中國的投資更應密切追蹤。

當國民黨政府一切以兩岸關係為優先,支持者侈談兩岸可化劍為犁,坐收和平紅利之際,中國試飛J20第五代戰機,台灣試射19枚對空飛彈成果不佳,顯示台灣在國防安全面臨嚴酷的挑戰。美方好奇胡錦濤是否知道中國軍方試飛J20,質疑中國文人對軍隊的控管能力。北京為了制裁歐巴馬對台軍售,凍結中美軍事交流約一年,才讓美國國防部長蓋茲訪中,旨在嚇阻美國進一步出售F16C/D戰機台灣。

台海兩岸關係緩和,但北京切斷美對台軍售、阻絕美國馳援台海的作法,沒有絲毫放鬆。在美中聯合聲明,中方強調「希望美方信守有關承諾,理解並支持中方在此問題上的立場」。歐巴馬雖提到「台灣關係法」,但也與美中三公報並列,而其中的「八一七公報」更是中方箝制美方對台軍售的利器。
歐巴馬總統在記者會強調美國堅持在南海的航行自由原則,美國兩位記者鍥而不捨對胡錦濤提出人權問題。美國國防部對中國軍力提昇密切關注,並發展「空海一體戰」構想,以因應中國的阻絕戰略。台灣看到美國的謹慎對策、自己對空飛彈試射的成績,需要警惕「和平紅利」一詞的危險性。

(作者為中央研究院歐美所研究員)

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