槍口下的民心思變

2010-12-03

@徐永明

這次五都選舉的結果,可以「南部更綠,北部褪藍」代表之,因為除了台北市之外,民進黨輸的差距都維持在五個百分點內,而贏的差距則都遠大於十個百分點,代表一個南部更綠,但北部並未更藍的一致性變化的方向,也就是政治版圖變化的效果是依緯度向北部推進的,目前似乎往北推到台中的近乎翻盤,以下是從藍綠版圖消長的角度來觀察這次五都選舉的「意外」與「趨勢」:

連勝文的槍擊案的確重創了民進黨的選情,只要證諸地方選舉前所未有的投票率:台中七成三、新北市七成一,遠高於原本預期的六成五上下的評估,代表台中多出了十五萬票,而新北市多出了十八萬票,其內容應該藍大於綠,這可以解釋選舉結果:民進黨台中輸掉的兩萬與新北市的十一萬票,兩黨在席次上的勝負的確取決於這個「意外」的槍擊案。

問題是,這個槍擊案決定了席次(seats)比,卻無法撼動選票(votes)比,這才是值得深入觀察的發展,也就是單一事件的確會激發與移動一定數目的選票,但是槍擊案並不能逆轉藍綠消長的趨勢,只是透過短時間的激化(polarization),來干擾或是終止這個變遷的趨勢。就這個短期效果而言,的確,這個槍擊案讓民進黨的勝利終止於台中城外。

但是,操作「意外」是不能挽回民心的,只能極化對立,鞏固既得利益,因為槍擊的勝利,所以郝龍斌連任了,也合理化了飽受批評的市政績效;因為槍擊,所以胡志強連任了,可以驕傲到不去敗選的台中縣拜票;同樣的,馬金體制鞏固了,馬英九鐵定代表國民黨參選總統,金浦聰黨權穩固,吳敦義亟思更上一層樓。這代表思變的民心完全因為這次槍擊勝選而被忽視,政權有一個護城河不受衝擊,因為槍擊勝選,所以改革的難題與路線的檢討根本不會在議程上,其實「意外」導致的勝利,不過是蘊含更大的危機。

換句話說,這次五都選舉並不單純是總統選舉的前哨戰,而是兩黨回應民心思變的機會,如果藍黨是透過操作意外來確保前哨戰的勝利,而綠黨則以回應民心思變來穩住選票上的勝利,不受意外的干擾而徬徨,那麼總統大選的路數差別則是相當清楚了。

民心思變的確嚴厲地考驗著政治領導的決心,是要貪圖一時政治權力的鞏固還是要勇敢地回應思變的民心,決定了政黨與政治領導未來的選舉命運。

(作者為東吳大學政治系助理教授)

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