中國和平崛起的假象

2010-10-22

@林正義

中國和平崛起一詞受到大陸內部的質疑,因為擔心外界注意到崛起而聯想到霸權的興起,因此改用「和平發展」。但是,國際社會關注的是中國的崛起是否和平的或和諧的。中國近年來對外強調軟實力,國務院總理溫家寶也宣示不會「國強必霸」。然而,一連串的舉措說明中國是言行之間有落差,自大與自卑同時並存的一個脆弱的強權。

台海的相對穩定,使中國有餘力在南海、東海與黃海採取較強硬的立場。中國除了台灣不予以攻訐之外,防範越南利用東協輪值主席國在南海有所動作,拒斥美國在南沙島礁的發言權,限時日本釋回扣押的詹其雄船長、以火箭砲射擊回應美韓的黃海軍演。

中國在處理釣魚台事件,採取對日本的高壓威脅手段,除了暫停中央與省級官員交流、暫停觀光客出團、暫停稀土輸日、扣押在河北軍事管理區錄影的四位日人等。中國也對日本運用「羞辱外交」,連走廊、廁所都可成為會談的地點。日本雖有反中的示威遊行,但難與中國成都、西安砸日店的民粹行為相比。

中日兩國宣示要維持「戰略互惠的關係」,每一年也有中日韓高峰會,但終究互信基礎脆弱。另外,中美兩國宣示要有「積極合作全面關係」,也有年度「戰略暨經濟對話」,但政治缺乏互信,軍事交流斷斷續續。北京除對美、對日關係的不和諧之外,連諾貝爾和平獎頒給劉曉波,竟然事先威脅、事後制裁沒有決定權的挪威政府,並取消該國漁業部長訪中。北京對美國、日本、挪威的強制外交,反映出中國尚未成為負責任、文明的國際大國,也顯示中國對自己的信心不足,時時以為他國要圍堵中國。

在台海暫時平穩時,台灣看到了崛起中國的在東海與南海的強制高壓一面。中國不會只給台灣經濟甜點,而不要求政治回報,而給台灣的經濟利益,對象是針對聽話的台灣政黨。中國若和平崛起或以和諧世界為重,鄰國的戒備會很快消失,但經由中國這一波的強硬反應,美國、日本更加了解到中國不可能和平崛起。台灣也需要有台海不穩定時的多方準備。

(作者為中央研究院歐美所研究員)

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