兩岸關係改善 台灣分化加劇

20097/31
◎ 林正義

英國作家狄更斯在「雙城記」中,描寫法國大革命時提到,「它是最好的時代,也是最壞的時代」。對完全執政的國民黨及弱小無力的民進黨而言,觀察當前兩岸關係走向,正是一部「雙城記」的寫照。

台灣不只有兩個政黨陣營與支持者的「雙城記」分歧,國家安全價值體系也進入動盪與解構期。中國究竟是敵是友或敵友兼具,對台灣政府、人民是一項選擇的挑戰。過去是反共,現在不提;過去刺激北京,現在順應;過去接觸中國民運人士、西藏達賴喇嘛、新疆熱比婭,現在避之唯恐不及。

兩岸、外交、僑務休兵之後,國防是否也要休兵或僅維持最低的刺蝟式防衛力量?中國對台飛彈部署未減、沒有宣稱放棄對台使用武力,但二十一位國軍退役高階將領到廈門,與十六位中國人民解放軍退役將領打高爾夫球進行球敘。如何處理世界銀行副行長林毅夫返台案,監察委員糾正國防部,但改變不了在一九七九年台美斷交後國人捐獻採購F5E自強中隊之際,林毅夫卻在金門前線叛逃的事實。

兩岸關係的快速發展,十個月內達成九項協議,在自豪官員口中成為一九四九年以來最佳狀態。民調雖顯示台灣民眾有九十%贊成維持台海現狀,但國民黨執政前後一年的台海現狀,卻已有實質上的重大改變。兩岸關係涉及主權部分不夠透明,官僚機制缺乏評估煞車閥、立院監督不力、反對黨自顧不暇,人民與專家目不暇給,跟不上政策腳步。兩岸關係在短期之內有改善,靠台北努力較少,改變政策立場較多。台灣流失那些關鍵的主體性與議價的籌碼,少有公開的客觀檢討。

中國共產黨對國民黨厚愛有加,正在把握機會往前推進兩岸關係,使日後民進黨執政也無法逆轉。北京對執政的國民黨可以有個案、限定版的優惠,對日後執政的民進黨處處設暗樁預防。前副總統擔任總統APEC特使、中華台北成為WHA觀察員、外交休兵北京配合等,若無法走出一時、一黨的專利格局,一旦國民黨沒有執政時,台灣將陷入措手不及的險境。

國共平台進行黨魁會談、經貿文化論壇、縣市長交流多年,明明是國共兩黨的對話機制,若非有顧慮何需更名?與其執著於形式主義,邀請少數民進黨人點綴,不如先在台灣內部展開對中國政策的溝通與辯論,兩黨研究如何分進與合擊。民進黨不參加國共論壇,不表示它可以離中國愈遠愈好,對中國研究的能量的提升,決定它能否提供一個客觀的論述與選擇,而非只有強硬、空泛立場的表態。

台灣海峽關係改善,台灣內部鴻溝加大。藉由美國來證明不必擔憂海峽兩岸發展過快,或藉民調來說明台灣民眾仍支持維持台海現狀,是執政合理化的方便,卻無法堵住台灣內部信任的破口。國民黨與共產黨的和解,若比國民黨與民進黨和解,更來得容易與更為迫切,台海和平與穩定將會是浮沙上建塔。

(作者為中央研究院歐美研究所研究員)

回應

michael kors factory outlet

kobe 9
michael kors outlet online
longchamp outlet
hermes belt
air force 1
michael kors purses
atlanta falcons jersey
air jordan shoes
nike air max thea
michael kors outlet
retro jordans
michael kors outlet store
yeezy shoes
michael kors outlet
adidas yeezy boost
led shoes for kids
nike huarache
yeezy boost 350
lebron 14
adidas neo
chrome hearts online
jordans for cheap
longchamp outlet
yeezy boost 350
air force 1
air max 2017
falcons jersey
true religion outlet
light up shoes
lebron 13 shoes
adidas superstar
nike air force
pandora charms sale
pandora jewelry
cheap jordans
hermes belt
michael jordan shoes
adidas nmd
nike zoom
yeezy shoes
led shoes
nike huaraches
cheap jordans
timberland boots
adidas online shop
new england patriots jersey
michael kors handbags
louboutin shoes
timberland outlet
nike polo shirts
longchamp handbags
kyrie 3 shoes
kobe basketball shoes
http://www.kobebasketballshoes.us.com
yeezy boost
nike huarache
nmd
longchamp le pliage
tory burch outlet
af1
adidas tubular shadow
air max thea
nike air max
nike huarache
nike air force 1
hogan outlet
kobe 9
pandora uk
lebron 13
yeezy boost
fitflops clearance
jordan shoes
longchamp bags
nike air huarache
kobe 11
timberland shoes
nmd
yeezy sneakers
adidas tubular shadow
adidas tubular
yeezy boost 350
roshe shoes
harden shoes
adidas stan smith shoes
yeezy boost
links of london
yeezy boost 350
michael kors outlet
longchamp
cheap basketball shoes
kobe shoes
pandora jewelry
michael kors outlet online
kyrie shoes
chrome hearts
lacoste online shop
james harden shoes
pandora bracelet
yeezy boost 350
fitflops sale clearance
nike huarache
michael kors outlet online
michael kors outlet
adidas nmd runner
air jordans
michael kors outlet store
air jordan
air jordan shoes
basketball shoes
michael kors outlet store
adidas neo
nike zoom
lebron 14 shoes
brady jersey
patriots jersey
cheap jordans
michael kors handbags outlet
nike air zoom
michael kors factory outlet
nike dunks shoes
nike mercurial
polo lacoste
nike roshe run
kyrie irving shoes
hermes belts
huarache shoes
cheap jordans
nike football boots
nike roshe uk
yeezy boost 350 v2
kobe shoes
chrome hearts online
fitflops
kobe 11
nike air force 1
cheap jordans
tory burch shoes
adidas ultra boost uncaged
jordan shoes
longchamp bags
adidas stan smith sneakers
longchamp handbags
fitflops
chrome hearts online
Kanye West shoes
pandora charms
adidas ultra
adidas tubular
yeezy boost
longchamps
adidas stan smith
huarache shoes
michael kors
michael kors uk
nike air max 2017
tory burch shoes
chrome hearts
longchamp bags
hogan outlet online
nike zoom running shoe
michael kors outlet
pandora charms
links of london outlet store
nike roshe run
michael kors outlet store
true religion jeans
air yeezy
yeezy shoes
lacoste outlet
michael kors factory outlet
yeezy boost 350
authentic jordans
longchamp sale
yeezy boost 350 v2
michael kors outlet
adidas ultra boost
true religion jeans
adidas superstar
kobe bryant shoes
authentic jordans
pandora jewelry
kobe basketball shoes
nike air max
nike air huarache
adidas ultra boost
cheap jordans
reebok outlet
retro jordans
michael jordan shoes
lacoste outlet
links of london sale
yeezys
adidas nmd
michael kors outlet
michael kors handbags
links of london
longchamp
true religion outlet
nike air huarache
ultra boost
timberland boots
jordan shoes
nike air force
nike roshe one
nike huarache
michael kors outlet
air jordan
reebok shoes
adidas ultra boost
lacoste polo shirts
air max
nike huarache
lacoste outlet
longchamp bags
nike air zoom
yeezy boost 350 v2
kobe shoes
michael kors
lebron james shoes
air max 2016
kobe sneakers
true religion
roshe run
michael kors handbags
adidas nmd
nike polo
yeezy boost
michael kors outlet online
http://www.kobeshoes.uk
adidas nmd
huaraches shoes
yeezy boost 350
michael kors handbags
chrome hearts online store
longchamp
jordan shoes
nike dunks
adidas superstar shoes
adidas superstar shoes
adidas stan smith
michael kors outlet
yeezy boost
kyrie 3
hermes belts for men
led shoes
lebron shoes
louboutin shoes uk
410

nike shoes jordan 11 michael

nike shoes
jordan 11
michael kors outlet online sale
nike air max 90
coach factory outlet
fitflops clearance
celine handbags
vans store
lacoste shoes
celine bags
north face clearance
ugg boots outlet
north face sale
coach factory outlet online
north face outlet locations
oakley clearance sunglasses 90% off
jordan retro 11
www.uggaustralia.com
giuseppe zanotti
coach outlet store online clearances
new balance shoes for women
north face women's jackets
adidas outlet
the north face
lacoste outlet
ugg boots on sale 70
coach sale
coach outlet
michael kors outlet online
air jordan 14
clarks
michael kors outlet online
ugg boots on sale 70%
michael kors outlet store
converse outlet
jimmy choo shoes
north face outlet
fitflops sale
coach factory
nike outlet
cheap nike air max
adidas shoes
michael kors outlet 70% off
fendi
columbia jackets
jordan 14
ugg boots on sale 70%
ralph lauren polo shirts
coach handbags outlet
columbia outlet
north face outlet store
louis vuitton belt
north face jackets
jordan shoes
coach store
coach purse
ugg boots on sale 70% off
michael kors wallet
michael kors handbags
yeezy boost
new balance shoes for women
nike high heels
jimmy choo
fitflop footwear
christian louboutin
michael kors outlet online store 49.00 outlet
kids north face
nike high heels online
sac longchamp pas cher
canada goose
jordan 11
sac michael kors pas cher
hermes bags
the north face sale
longchamp soldes
north face outlet store
jordan 11
ralph lauren outlet
oakley sunglasses
new balance shoes
burberry outlet
ferragamo shoes sale
cheap coach purses
nike basketball shoes
canada goose sale
swarovski jewelry
burberry scarf
michael kors outlet
north face clearance
air jordan 13 retro
pandora bracelet
louboutin outlet
michael kors bags
coach sale
under armour shoes
jordan release dates 2016
michael kors bags
mk
converse
kate spade
hermes outlet online
louboutin shoes
hermes outlet
burberry sale
michael kors sale
burberry sale
nfl jerseys wholesale
sacs longchamp
gucci belts
official coach factory online sale
coachoutlet.com
mont blanc
coach factory outlet
converse sale
prada outlet
ray ban sunglasses
michael kors outlet online
michael kors wallets
michael kors handbags outlet
hermes belt
sac michael kors
cheap north face
michael kors outlet online
under armour outlet
coach store
michael kors purse
kids jordans
cheap nike shoes
michael kors outlet
sacs longchamp
michael kors outlet
columbia
jordan 6
joes new balance
michael kors bag
hermes bags
air force 1 shoes
cheap coach purses
mbt
jordan retro 11
oakley glasses
timberland boots
oakley sunglasses
rolex watches prices
ralph lauren shirts
pandora bracelet
coach handbags
coach diaper bag
ray-ban sunglasses
adidas outlet
michael kors bags
michael kors store
cheap nike air max
juicy couture
coach wallets outlet
cheap rolex watches
nike outlet
rolex watches outlet
clarks outlet
vans shoes clearance
nike high heels outlet online
coach factory online
columbia clothing outlet
mbt outlet
michael kors pas cher
air jordan shoes for sale
christian louboutin shoes
coach purses outlet
coach purses outlet online
pandora bracelets
jordan 13
fitflop outlet
ugg boots on sale
north face outlet
adidas outlet store
www.coachoutlet.com
juicy couture handbags
ralph lauren polo outlet online
columbia sportswear
the north face
christian louboutin shoes
coach purse
ray ban outlet
nfl jerseys
columbia sportswear outlet
north face jackets clearance
kate spade
michael kors sac
cheap uggs
jordan shoes
nike air force 1
nike high heels
ugg boots on sale 70% off
swarovski outlet
fitflops sale
jordan 6 infrared
nike outlet store
cheap converse shoes
coach outlet
mbt shoes clearance outlet
jordan 14
coach factory outlet
joe's new balance
michael kors handbags
salomon shoes
guess factory
coach wallets outlet
rolex watches for men
jordan 11
christian louboutin outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
hermes birkin bag
canada goose outlet
michael kors outlet online
fitflops sale
cheap jordans
pandora jewelry
christian louboutin outlet
guess shoes
kobes shoes
michael kors outlet 90% off sale
burberry sale
jordan 6
new balance shoes
north face factory outlet
nike free run
north face jacket
coach outlet
coach bags
kate spade purses
ray-ban
nike store
nike nfl jresey
giuseppe
under armour clearance
asics
ray ban wayfarer sunglasses
coach factory
ugg boots on sale 70% off
north face jacket clearance
ugg factory outlet
guess store
michael kors handbags clearance
louboutin shoes
tiffany outlet
clarks shoes for women
cheap supra shoes
vans shoes
michael kors outlet online
kobe shoes
air max 2016
north face jackets
mbt shoes
jordan 6
jordan 6
coach handbags
coach purses
louis vuitton belts
timberland
fitflop outlet online
michael kors purses
christian louboutin shoes
louboutin shoes
nike air max
red bottom shoes
under armour basketball shoes
air jordan shoes
cheap ray ban sunglasses
north face outlet
timberland boots for women
michael kors outlet online
michael kors outlet 75% off
nike heels
canada goose jackets
nike huarache
fendi handbags
converse outlet
coach wallets
north face denali jacket clearance
fitflops sale
north face jackets for women
canada goose outlet
cheap nike shoes from china
under armour outlet
micheal kors
coach shoes
michael kors factory outlet
columbia clothing
asics running shoes
ugg boots sale
prada handbags
coach handbags outlet
hermes birkin
coach wallet
nike air jordan shoes
jordan 6 black infrared
pandora rings
michael kors jewelry
coach purses
canada goose sale
red sole shoes
converse sale clearance
michael kors store
coach factory online
michael kors purses sale
ugg boots clearance
jordan retro 6
fitflops sale clearance
ferragamo belts
jordan shoes
coach bags on sale
pandora charms
supra for sale
air jordan 6
michael kors
north face
coach factory outlet
2016 michael kors outlet
sac longchamp pas cher
air jordan 12
coach wallet
burberry outlet
converse shoes
cheap nfl jerseys
coach outlet
nike air max
jordan 3
hermes outlet online
polo shirts for men
nike free 5.0
www.oakley.com
rolex watches for sale
prada shoes
michael kors outlet online sale 42.99
jordan retro 3
celine handbags
tiffany and co
jimmy choo shoes
coach outlet online
mont blanc pens
jordan retro 6
north face outlet store
air jordan retro 6
clark shoes
shoes jordan
oakley sunglasses wholesale
the north face clearance
oakley
coach purses
guess
hermes outlet online
reebok
coach handbags outlet
prada shoes
nike air force
timberland outlet
celine outlet
hermes bag
hermes scarf
clarks boots
michael kors handbags clearance 75% off
clarks
new balance outlet
fitflop shoes
swarovski
michael kors outlet store
north face outlet
air jordan 13
ugg boots on sale 70
nike air max
ugg boots sale
north face jackets clearance
salomon boots
celine handbags
jimmy choo outlet
north face
the north face outlet
cheap nike
cheap coach handbags
vans shoes
cheap michael kors handbags
prada sunglasses
prada outlet
nike heels
nfl jerseys cheap authentic free shipping
kobe bryant shoes
puma outlet store
sac a main michael kors
burberry scarf
coach purses on sale
tiffany co
vans store
coach glasses
salvatore ferragamo
michael kors outlet
coach wallets
fendi belt
moncler
guess outlet
michael kors outlet
ferragamo shoes outlet
cheap nfl jerseys china wholesale
michael kors bags
hermes bag
fitflop sandals
guess
christian louboutin sale
michael kors
christian louboutin outlet
ferragamo
guess purses
cheap jordan shoes
coach outlet stores
jordan shoes for cheap
ugg boots on sale 70
new balance shoes
cheap north face jackets
louboutin shoes
michael kors outlet
juicy couture outlet online
20161104yxj

"We timberland shoes all year

"We timberland shoes all year nike air max pas cher round longchamp soldes enrollment, annual fees ranging from 12900 thomas sabo uk yuan coach outlet store online to asics running shoes 16800 giuseppe zanotti yuan, and moncler uk the mcm handbags more nike air force expensive ray ban uk on hermes pas cher the market, true religion outlet we are learning iphone 6 cases from abercrombie and fitch UK kindergarten to high ray ban sunglasses school students celine handbags can differ, Lu finished, abercrombie and fitch then nike roshe uk apply michael kors outlet online for the jimmy choo outlet sports colleges and universities, can sac louis vuitton also mac cosmetics quit, michael kors see your links of london uk situation. Student salvatore ferragamo graduation can be lancel recruited into the valentino shoes police force moncler pas cher or burberry pas cher the coach louis vuitton handbags does, is vans pas cher very sac guess pas cher good." A Shaolin martial vans,vans scarpe,vans italia arts school admissions bottega veneta office converse,scarpe converse,converse italia,converse sito ufficiale,converse all star staff told tory burch outlet reporters karen millen uk that the and bottes ugg pas cher international wedding dresses uk class, cheap jordans dedicated to foreign gucci,borse gucci,gucci sito ufficiale,gucci outlet students, polo lacoste pas cher there michael kors outlet online is even sac louis vuitton a ugg pas cher special class - north face outlet the tyranny ralph lauren outlet of addiction, nike air max because I replica watches believe oakley sunglasses the Shaolin louis vuitton outlet online brand, lunette ray ban pas cher some parents pandora jewelry are abercrombie and fitch willing swarovski jewelry to p90x workout spend nike roshe run money canada goose uk to send montre pas cher their chanel handbags children insanity workout to abercrombie the toms shoes Shaolin hollister Wushu school kate spade outlet discipline.However, wedding dresses in the multi soccer shoes management oakley,occhiali oakley,oakley italia mode, it prada handbags is canada goose outlet difficult to converse balance nike free the interests uggs on sale of louboutin,louboutin outlet,louboutin outlet italia all hollister uk parties. true religion outlet The income ralph lauren polo are babyliss pro not nike free pas cher to canada goose jackets enter nike outlet Shaolin north face pas cher Temple coach purses "pocket". A senior ctshk longchamp outlet Dengfeng told reporters, Dengfeng harbor michael kors outlet store is controlled herve leger by the longchamp pas cher Chinese ctshk group oakley sunglasses Hongkong travel Investments International Ltd lululemon outlet accounted for 51% of the ray ban sunglasses shares, nike air max a moncler outlet wholly-owned nfl jerseys Dengfeng City Hall owned moncler,moncler outlet,moncler sito ufficiale Dengfeng Songshan Shaolin canada goose outlet Culture hollister Tourism Group christian louboutin Co., accounted for moncler jackets 49% mulberry uk of nike air max uk the shares was uggs on sale established. "Therefore,
Because the louboutin shoes "Shaolin" scenic converse shoes outlet area michael kors uk is michael kors outlet online an supra shoes overall ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia concept, hogan sito ufficiale in addition swarovski uk to nike free the Shaolin ghd hair Temple, there nike tn pas cher are nike roshe run pas cher ten ugg,uggs,uggs canada Buddhist temple and other mont blanc temples. There is instyler ionic styler a north face outlet song softball bats 'internal nike trainers uk staff revealed, louboutin pas cher with kate spade tickets, only about 30% tiffany and co jewelry to Shaolin Temple, coach outlet about 70% for louis vuitton the development of juicy couture outlet scenic area. In addition, the local pandora jewelry and problems longchamp bags left true religion outlet over new balance shoes by longchamp uk history leading to hermes handbags public moncler,moncler interests true religion jeans and ctshk Dengfeng ralph lauren,polo ralph lauren,ralph lauren outlet,ralph lauren italia,ralph lauren sito ufficiale contradictions, reebok outlet such as canada goose pas cher the christian louboutin area coach outlet within the vanessa bruno pas cher land problems, such as coach outlet the local people and hope michael kors outlet under oakley sunglasses the banner of moncler Shaolin louis vuitton concept stands vans outlet to lululemon outlet make money soccer jerseys but caused michael kors handbags confusion in louis vuitton outlet the gucci handbags management, this burberry outlet let ctshk Dengfeng very louboutin uk headache. And those barbour jackets uk under the nike air max uk banner pandora uk of michael kors handbags Shaolin nike air max martial arts jordan pas cher school and nike air max,air max,air max 2014,nike air max 2014,air max 90,airmax,air max 95,air max 2013,nike air max 90,nike air max 2013 all ray ban,rayban,occhiali ray ban kinds of performance juicy couture outlet is longchamp outlet not nike blazer pas cher directly under ralph lauren pas cher the prada outlet Shaolin Temple, tiffany jewelry and canada goose jackets therefore louis vuitton will timberland pas cher not nike huarache,nike huaraches,nike air huarache be divided into to the ugg uk Shaolin Temple. This chi flat iron can not air max,nike air max help reminiscent canada goose of hollister,abercrombie,hollister sito ufficiale,abercrombie italia,abercrombie and fitch,abercrombie outlet the investment louis vuitton uk for the Australian branch, new balance Shaolin Temple's burberry factory outlet attitude is: louis vuitton outlet before others north face uk are polo ralph lauren uk in operation, beats by dre the present is the Shaolin lunette oakley pas cher Temple officially played.replica watches

---------歡迎發表回應 以促進公共議題討論---------
惟與討論主題無關或惡意人身攻擊的回應,本版保留刪除權利