全球化時代告終

◎ 洪裕宏

從一九八○年美國前總統雷根啟動經濟全球化以來,這個在過去近三十年間,舉世皆奉為圭臬的經貿自由化教條,到了去年全球經濟大崩盤,新自由主義的經濟神話終告幻滅。美國向全世界輸出全球化,現在卻又率先去全球化。華盛頓郵報指出,歐巴瑪的經濟政策明確告別雷根經濟學,宣告一個去全球化的時代來臨。美國參眾兩院在通過振興經濟方案時附加需購買美國貨的但書。這象徵貿易保護主義又抬頭,歐巴瑪顯然將振興美國產業,提振內需卻降低進口依賴做為政策主軸,這明顯翻轉了經濟全球化的信念。台灣在此波經濟大崩盤的危機中該如何思考未來的經濟出路?

振興產業、擴大公共支出、提振內需與降低進口依賴已成為各國救經濟的共同作法,藉此來提高GDP值。過去藉出口來維持經濟成長的國家,如中國、韓國、台灣等,都面臨市場消失的困境。台灣出口總值已佔GDP的七成,上個月的英國《經濟學人》雜誌將台灣列為當今世上最醜的經濟體,因為台灣過重的依賴出口(以美國為主)使台灣經濟受傷慘重。全球化已經結束了,各國都在保護本國產業。連中國都意識到過去靠美國消費市場所支持的經濟成長已煙消雲散,不惜大幅擴大財政赤字以創造本國市場。

全球化既已告終,台灣在此波經濟大危機中就不可再以全球化的舊思維來制定財經政策。如果大家都在自我保護,你卻在高唱市場開放與自由化,擺明了就是經濟自殺。很不幸地,最近吵得沸沸揚揚的要不要與中國簽CECA 或ECFA,馬政府的思維完全是全球化的舊思維。先不論與中國簽這樣的協議是否默認一中架構,出賣國家主權,所謂自由貿易協定 (FTA) 的核心思想就是經濟全球化。經濟全球化已經搞死了全球經濟,馬政府卻死要跟中國簽這種東西。

東協加一或加三其實就是FTA的理念實踐,然而歐美市場已巨幅萎縮,即使市場回溫也不會像過去大量進口新興國家的產品。東協本身市場有限,而中國市場還在畫餅充饑階段,就算中國內需有所成長,她也要先救自己的產業與勞工。馬政府如果不懂這個道理,那是又笨又無能,如果懂這個道理,還死要簽ECFA,就是擺明了要促統而不是救經濟。

(作者為陽明大學心智哲學所教授)

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