二次政黨輪替的照妖鏡效應

徐永明 東吳政治系

美國政治學者杭廷頓曾經提出一個「二次政黨輪替」的理論,認為唯有經過威權政黨被反對運動替換,以及一個再被替換的過程,才能確保新興民主體制的常態化,也就是民主成為一個輸家與贏家不確定的遊戲規則,確保所謂永續執政不會發生。

台灣民主在今年總統選舉之後,似乎也進入了這個二次政黨輪替的循環,只不過所呈現出的國民黨一黨獨大,這個結果大概是杭廷頓所意想不到的:一個民主程序產出一個最可能傷害民主的權力集中,使得二次政黨輪替有助於民主鞏固的理論受到很大的挑戰,而台灣正是一個活生生的極端值案例。

不過,二次政黨輪替卻也有一些照妖鏡的效應,初步澄清了一些政治迷思。

首先,是民間社會根深蒂固的,國民黨很會拼經濟的形象,但在執政之後處理油價與通膨的一次漲足,立即被看破手腳;尤其是眾人皆曰不可的「擴大內需」,為了擺平地方勢力的資源需求,執意違反預算法而行,遇到颱風立刻轉彎來治水,誰說國民黨有執政能力?

再者,是國民黨很會處理兩岸國際的感覺,選舉期間一副入聯公投如果過了,兩岸會緊張,美日會不爽的氛圍之下,馬英九似乎成了國際寵兒。執政之後立刻三通直航,觀光客來台救經濟的支票隨即跳票,兩岸再怎麼休兵,「中華台北」取代台灣成了新國名,更不要提釣魚台衝突之後,派不出駐日代表,與美國關係也盪到谷底,有了「凍結」軍購的說法,台灣立刻親中而遠美日。

最後,則是以反貪腐之名行政治鬥爭之實,選前紅衫軍宣稱是超越藍綠的,選後才發現紛紛位居高位;選舉時馬英九要當全民總統而有六成選票,選後為了救民調而行清算鬥爭之實。監察院長王建煊的發言可謂經典:因為綠委檢舉其在財政部長的政策圖利,而破口大罵,綠官專作狗皮倒灶之事,印證老子「聖人出,天下亂」之言。

無論如何,這些政治迷思在二次政黨輪替之後,的確獲得一定澄清的效果,雖然台灣民眾也要為此付出代價。究其因,在於台灣媒體的尾巴與跟風性格:選前塗妝抹脂,選後封官受爵,在在印證了:缺乏獨立的媒體,民主選舉不一定能有正確的選擇,而台灣民主的道路也就更曲折彎曲了。

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