馬政府不願面對的真相

徐永明

最近有民調顯示,新就任的馬英九總統在施政滿意度僅五成出頭,而不滿意度卻高達四成,被戲稱是「死亡交叉」的來臨,亦即不滿意度高過滿意度的關頭,代表七百多萬票的高民氣總統,卻意外面臨民怨沸騰的狀態。

為了能拉抬民調,原本要退居二線的馬總統也得開始下鄉,安排行程以紓解民怨,甚至要拉著劉兆玄一起,形成總統扛著不受歡迎的院長,政治上陷入典型「父子騎驢」的雙首長困境。原本劉內閣是用來當馬總統的防火牆,現在卻是馬英九的政治包袱,因為太早拋棄,會帶動國民黨新一波的權鬥,馬英九在黨內的絕對主導破功;但如果持續到明年底,卻又不利年底的縣市長選情,甚至波及馬英九的連任。

這些都是權力計畫,但為何會陷入這樣的困境,卻是馬政府不願意面對的真相:所有新政府的施政都與基層民眾脫節,甚至嚴重衝突。

無論是油價上漲、擴大內需,乃至於中國觀光客來台,都可以說有其經濟上的理由,但是相對應的實質政策,卻少從基層民眾的利益出發,這才是馬政府最大的盲點,也是民願持續沸騰的燃點。

以油價提前喊漲為例,為了防止極少數人的囤積行為,卻與絕大多數的民眾作對,造成社會的不信任感。而為了拉抬經濟成長率的擴大內需,不一定能美化帳面上的數據,卻將資源集中在地方首長手上,造成政商關係決定了預算的分沾,這跟為通膨所苦的民眾也沒有關係。

至於,馬英九最引以為傲的經濟萬靈丹:包機直航與中國觀光客來台,因為是團進團出,整個利益分配的食物鏈是封閉排他的,從大陸旅行社的壟斷,到台灣的遊覽車隊、觀光飯店、路線與景點規劃,都已經分食殆盡,除非進一步開放自由行,否則市面不會有榮景,一般老百姓無法獲利。

這個與基層需求脫節的政策,就是馬政府不願意面對的真相,也是社會民心與股市持續看壞的基本原因,造成持續性通膨的結構難題,這是馬英九扛著劉內閣下鄉也沒辦法解決的矛盾。

唯有暫停擴大內需的預算消耗,將資源直接分配到基層弱勢,才能提振民眾的信心,否則高度期待下的失落效應,更會在中國觀光客來台後發酵,這時候不是內閣總辭可以救得了馬英九的。

(作者為東吳大學助理教授)

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The seventh edition of attention "Dream Tai Chi" turns out to be the long-awaited new balance 580 out of the opening ceremony The same day, film stars and visitors will witness the air Granville dumb, mobile stage, water curtain converse 1970 Matrix colorful laser lights together to create a unique effect, to see the new version of "Dream Taiji" to bring tourists magical experience. July 26, actress Aoi will lead the combined water in the world for tourists portrait Aladdin stage concerts, plus sportsman dancers, passion summer atmosphere rendered vividly.

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