誰來當烏鴉?

作者:東吳大學政治系教授黃秀端

馬英九當選總統後,其支持者無不歡欣鼓舞,加上媒體的造神運動,彷彿台灣的問題只要開放三通,「馬上就可以解決」。在該陣營將近得意忘形之時,台中市長胡志強終於表示要有人當烏鴉,可惜胡市長只當了一天烏鴉就住口了。未來的兩岸關係,錯綜複雜,詭譎多變,當所有的人都在歌功頌德時,讓人擔心未來的馬政府是否會迷失於過度樂觀與自信中,反而置台灣安全於險境。烏鴉固然惹人厭,但是一個團體沒有他,才可能是災難。

此時,讓我想起美國心理學家詹尼斯的團體決策的迷思。根據詹尼斯的看法,團體決策的迷思最容易發生在團體成員同質性高、凝聚力強,且成員彼此之間追求團體和諧的時候,此時若沒有人願意挺身當烏鴉,其決策可能是危險的,尤其是若該決策有時間壓力時。詹尼斯分析美國歷史上幾個失敗的外交事件以及成功的事件,而得出團體決策迷思的理論。這些個失敗的事件,包括詹森總統時的越南戰事的升高、杜魯門時的韓戰、甘迺迪時的入侵古巴的豬邏灣之役、羅斯福時在全無防範下被日軍偷襲珍珠港。除此之外,布希總統因進攻伊拉克而搞得焦頭爛額,結果並未發現伊拉克擁有大規模殺傷性武器。有人亦將美國情報部門的過失,歸咎於團體迷思。這些決策的失敗並非決策人員的品質,相反的參與決策的人都是國家最優秀的菁英。為什麼會讓這樣的情況發生呢?

詹尼斯發現當決策的團體過份的自信和樂觀時,會傾向相信群體所做出的決策是正義的,而忽視潛在的危險及警告,也會忽視道德上的挑戰。對於懷疑群體立場和計劃的人,群體總是立即給予反擊,但常常不是以證據來反駁,而是以冷嘲熱諷代之。除此之外,團體會有集體合理化現象,忽視外來的挑戰。即使有成員對於議題有疑慮時也會自我克制,認為自己沒有權力可以質疑多數人的決定或智慧,因此忽視自己心中的疑慮。同時,某些成員會有意地扮演守門員角色,扣留或隱藏那些不利於群體決策的資訊和資料,以此來保護決策的合法性。在此種群體壓力和自我壓抑的結果之下,使群體的意見看起來是一致的,並由此造成群體統一的錯覺。表面的一致性又會使群體決策合理化,這種由於缺乏不同的意見而造成統一的錯覺,使得該團體未能全面研究替代方案、未能全面蒐集相關資訊、不考慮既定選擇的風險、甚至可以使很多荒謬、罪惡的行動合理化,以致造成錯誤的決策。

防止團體決策的迷思並不難,就是要有人扮演烏鴉的角色。同時,領導者應鼓勵其成員提出反對意見和懷疑;決議達成前,最好能請群體之外的專家與會,並請他們對群體意見提出挑戰。希望未來馬總統陣營,還是要有人經常扮演烏鴉角色,否則隨時可能陷入彼岸之陷阱而不知。

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Godteammate

According to analyst estimates, Ma is now worth $ 12.5 billion, Alibaba market capitalization is $ 168 billion, the company is about to IPO in the United States, horse owners topped the continent's richest man around the corner. Business converse 1970 has a natural law: new balance 580 policymakers mistakes will become a competitor of assets. Ma do not know the ball, but he knows the people, do not attach importance to the sports industry Ma is now very passive.

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