扁式豪賭 不靠招降納叛宋楚瑜 自己來征服

扁式豪賭 不靠招降納叛宋楚瑜 自己來征服
台聯黨 吸納深綠 民進黨 鞏固中間

徐永明/中研院社科所助研究員 【2005-03-04/聯合報/A15版/民意論壇】

扁宋會之後,誰騙誰、誰愛誰的問題,已從主播、男歌星與女明星的多角關係擴散到政黨的組合,乃至政治人物間的結盟關係:陳水扁總統說改國號是做不到的,不要自己騙自己,大家都還在猜講的是誰在騙自己時,已經有數位獨派大老聯袂辭職;李安妮出來喊話說,李登輝是鼓勵扁宋相親,而不是上床,言詞之犀利,更讓民進黨中央開始感受到基層割喉的效果。

顯然,扁宋會除了書面的十點共識,更重要的是,泛綠聯盟內部的關係已經開始鬆動重組了,陳總統每說一次「不要自己騙自己」,民進黨就更往中間移動;而台聯針針見血地嘲諷「便所會」,就深深吸引了被疏離的泛綠選民。學術上名詞的政黨重組,活生生地演出為政治偶像劇的愛恨情仇,政黨劈腿為常態,政治人物的言辭直接。問題是,執政聯盟的重組扳機才剛擊發,台聯能不能有效吸納深綠選票,而民進黨能不能鞏固中間選民,才是扁宋會對政黨體系最深遠的影響。

直覺上,扁宋會是為了因應泛綠在立法院少數的政治困境,透過與親民黨的合作來形成多數,所以應該是以權力的交換與職位的組合為主,這也是扁宋會可能的政治分贓,讓民眾不能接受的,所以一開始壓力是在宋楚瑜身上。但是十點聲明一出,才發現這不只是一時的權宜結盟而已,反而有民進黨政府往中間移動的宣示意味,當下讓獨派有了激烈的反應。不過似乎怕這個火會熄掉,阿扁總統在與歐洲議會視訊對話時,又再重複一次「不要自己騙自己」,這才燒出一片燎原來。

不過,當政治上的言辭越辛辣時,代表選票上的收穫越有潛力,這在選戰過程中台灣民眾已經相當有心得了,只不過沒想到,非選舉期間也可以這樣搞。台灣的政治發展並沒有因為選舉結束而停滯,藉著扁宋會的背書,阿扁正拖著民進黨政府往中間移動,深怕同志們遲疑,一再出重手斷了後路;擔心社會懷疑,除了大字「真誠」外,與李登輝的恩怨情仇就成了獻祭的野台戲。

興奮的應該是台聯,立委選舉表現不理想,面對單一選區前途未卜之際,扁宋會反而打了強心針,民進黨空出一大片綠油油的選票,現在是怎麼收割的問題。除了批判扁宋會外,強而有力的政治領導是必須的,才能攏聚離散了的民心,也才能提出與民進黨競爭的路線,進一步威脅二八總統選舉的前景,這才會讓民進黨接班世代有所顧忌。

所以,這齣兄弟鬩牆鬧劇不會太快結束,因為還有太多政治基盤需要移動與重整,成功,可說是另一場扁式政治豪賭,不是靠宋楚瑜來招降納叛,而是自己來征服。當然,失敗,就再次證明,中間路線有多困難。

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