烏克蘭獨立的啟示

洪裕宏

自由時報報導,台灣承認科索沃獨立,並且成為該國最大報的頭條新聞。中國方面卻宣稱台灣不是主權國家,沒有資格承認科索沃,並且粗暴干預,迫使科索沃官方網站將承認國家名單中剔除台灣。這樣的消息傳來,聽了令人難過。台灣作為主權國家,其國際地位與外交尊嚴何時才能確立?

馬英九反對尋求台灣主權獨立的真正理由,是因為他主張台灣遲早要與中國統一。面對高漲的台灣意識,馬英九不敢直接主張統一。他的反獨論述主要訴諸中國武力攻台的戰爭威脅與美國和國際社會的反對。主張台灣主權獨立的人被描繪成國際社會的麻煩製造者。然而,國際政治果真如此簡單嗎?台獨真的是麻煩製造者嗎?

卡特的國家安全顧問布里辛斯基在其2007年出版的書《第二次機會》中指出,從他對老布希、柯林頓與小布希三位總統的外交政策觀察,認為在這三任總統任內的美國外交政策,常常是跟著世界情勢的發展走,而不是影響或帶領世界情勢的發展。三位總統經常判斷錯誤,最後多半是靠運氣而解決問題。

烏克蘭的獨立是一個例證。老布希低估了非俄民族主義有多麼強烈,認為蘇聯的國家認同感強到使其境內的非俄民族不會追求獨立。老布希於1991年8月訪問烏克蘭,在其演說中表示,美國不會支持烏克蘭的獨立。美國支持烏克蘭追求自由,卻不支持以種族仇恨為基礎而鼓吹自殺式民族主義的人。老布希顯然誤判情勢,阻擋烏克蘭的獨立,以維持蘇聯體制。老布希訪烏克蘭後四個月,烏克蘭全國公投,通過獨立建國,狠狠打了老布希一個巴掌。

現在的小布希處理台海問題與他父親有很大的相似性。小布希也希望維持中國共產黨體制的穩定,低估了中國境內的民族主義有多強烈,認為中國已成功地型塑中國認同,包括台灣的人民都認同中國,民族主義獨立建國只會帶來區域性的不穩定。小布希政府一再宣示不支持台獨;並警告台獨的危險性。然而事實上台灣會不會像烏克蘭一樣呢?烏克蘭的獨立觸發了非俄民族的獨立浪潮,台灣的獨立是否也會觸發中國境內如西藏、新疆、甚至香港等的獨立浪潮呢?

台灣人民從烏克蘭獨立,得到的教訓是:雖然美國與蘇聯合力防堵烏克蘭的獨立,烏克蘭內部也有如馬英九這類的統派,烏克蘭人民仍然勇敢地藉著全國公投,確立脫離俄羅斯帝國主義對烏克蘭的壓迫,也促成蘇聯的解體。台灣獨立是否也會促成中國的解體,而不是如馬英九所言,招惹中國攻台呢?

(洪裕宏,陽明大學哲學所教授,澄社執委)

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Godteammate

SOE football new balance 580 due to inefficient management is unclear, there is no market has been growing, Ma waved the banner, pre-loaded, smell converse 1970 wind moving directly or indirectly involved in the football industry's emerging private capital should be few, which is equal to the death sentence of the state-owned football - are to yell and Ma Xu Jiayin, Luneng, leading officials of the national security of the natural sound of pins and needles in the reviled and ridiculed.

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