政治賽局,價值取勝

徐永明
東吳大學政治系助理教授

目前關於投票程序一階段還是兩階段的爭議,儼然成為立委選前最重要的政治議題,姑且不論其對於選民投票行為的影響,地方與中央的藍綠衝突,被視為一個相互加速撞車的政治角力,尤其隨著投票日的接近,所有人都在關心投票日當天,自己要去的投票所會是怎樣的擺設,堅持一階段的選民是否能有秘密投票的空間。

一個關呼公民權保障的議題,卻演變為典型的弱雞賽局(chicken game),也就是僵持至今,中央與地方都有不可退讓的壓力:對於民進黨政府而言,執政者的責任在於維持選務的公平與秩序,中選會既然做出決定,行政院只有執行的義務;但是對於泛藍十八個縣市而言,這個堅持兩階段的計算就比較複雜,既要透過降低公投領票率來阻擋黨產公投的通過,又要讓中間選民以為國民黨並不反公投,以免重蹈兩千零四年的覆轍,公投雖然沒過,但是總統卻輸了。

而這樣的弱雞賽局有兩個均衡點(equilibriums),既不是兩相對撞,也不是相互妥協合作,而是一方堅持一方退讓的局面,也就是相互角力的結局只有一勝一敗的可能,因此這個賽局常成為政治處境的典型案例,這也是為什麼中選會要修法來處份「失職」的地方主委,而國民黨也不能太快就接受所謂的「混合制」,或是自找下台階的「彈性開放二階段」,因為這就是明顯的退讓,如此未來的公投賽局就會陷入一階段主導的局面,沒有翻盤的可能。

雖然藍營內部也有人喊出拒領公投票,而且聲音越來越大,但是這個動員完全無助於國民黨地方首長在這個「弱雞賽局」中翻盤,反而讓藍營,乃至於國民黨總統候選人馬英九陷入更大的衝突中,因為立委投票時最大的新聞焦點已經不是陳總統一階段還是兩階段投票了,而是馬英九會不會去領公投票,尤其這次沒有清場放下窗簾的私密空間時,另一邊的連戰、王金平與宋楚瑜可是會高調拒領公投票的。

如此觀之,馬英九正是機關算盡,反而誤了卿卿的命,因為缺乏公投是民主價值的堅持,只想為了模糊焦點來提「反貪腐」、「返聯」的公投,不但會在投票一階段的弱雞賽局中敗下,更會在總統大選中進退兩難,讓人看破政治作戲的手腳。

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