贏了總統輸掉公投?

林正義
中央研究院歐美所研究員、澄社社員

在二○○八年北京奧運之前,北京當局正苦思如何因應台灣朝野兩黨進入聯合國的公投。北京認為這是二○○五年「反分裂國家法」以來,面對來自台灣最具體的挑戰。北京的矛頭雖指向民進黨,避談或批判國民黨「重返聯合國」公投,但是台灣朝野兩黨難得一致在公投進入聯合國的決策,卻使北京難以嚥下這口氣,正思索如何適度有所動作。但弔詭的是,北京卻可能面對台灣一個沒有通過的聯合國公投。

若在二○○八年三月二十二日總統選舉之前,一切按照線性發展,將是民進黨或國民黨總統勝出的結果之一,卻有可能出現四種公投不同的結果,依可能性排序如下:民進黨與國民黨公投均未通過;國民黨版本通過;兩黨版本均過關;民進黨版本過關。

儘管超過70%台灣民眾贊成以台灣名義「加入聯合國」(以新會員申請程序),但民進黨版本卻是最不可能通過的劇本。二○○四年,陳水扁總統引用「公投法」第十七條進行的「防衛性公投」,在國民黨與親民黨杯葛之下,在一六五○萬選民中,因沒有過半數投票而未能成案。其中,「增添反飛彈裝備」公投結果,更成為國民黨在過去三年阻擋愛國者三型飛彈的主要理由。二○○七年七月,國民黨中常會通過「重返聯合國」公投版本,就意味它要與民進黨一別苗頭,不可能要它的選民支持民進黨公投版本。

設若二○○八年全國選民為一七五○萬,投票八成約一千四百萬選票,由民進黨與國民黨均分,約各得七百萬票。若兩黨要求它的支持者只投自己政黨的公投版本,就無法達到公投門檻所需的八百二十五萬票。兩黨版本均未能通過成為最可能的劇本。除非有一個政黨真正為台灣國際外交空間著想,呼籲它的選民兩種公投版本均加以支持,才有可能通過其中一個版本。國民黨顯然無意如此,否則就不會有自己的版本。民進黨能否有此胸襟仍待觀察。

台灣朝野政黨在意的是執政掌權,公投是否過關在總統選出之後就少有人真正關切它的影響及衝擊。美國與中國將「入聯公投」視同是改變現狀,若台灣「入聯公投」失敗,而國民黨版本過關,至少仍表示台灣人民對外交孤立的不滿。一個長期推動加入聯合國的政黨,承受美中壓力與威脅,卻由一個更計算選票而跟進的政黨收成,雖令人難受,但總比兩黨公投版本均告失敗的難堪與衝擊來得小。因此,民進黨應鼓勵它的選民投下兩張公投票,而非僅僅是民進黨的版本。

回應

nike shoes jordan 11 michael

nike shoes
jordan 11
michael kors outlet online sale
nike air max 90
coach factory outlet
fitflops clearance
celine handbags
vans store
lacoste shoes
celine bags
north face clearance
ugg boots outlet
north face sale
coach factory outlet online
north face outlet locations
oakley clearance sunglasses 90% off
jordan retro 11
www.uggaustralia.com
giuseppe zanotti
coach outlet store online clearances
new balance shoes for women
north face women's jackets
adidas outlet
the north face
lacoste outlet
ugg boots on sale 70
coach sale
coach outlet
michael kors outlet online
air jordan 14
clarks
michael kors outlet online
ugg boots on sale 70%
michael kors outlet store
converse outlet
jimmy choo shoes
north face outlet
fitflops sale
coach factory
nike outlet
cheap nike air max
adidas shoes
michael kors outlet 70% off
fendi
columbia jackets
jordan 14
ugg boots on sale 70%
ralph lauren polo shirts
coach handbags outlet
columbia outlet
north face outlet store
louis vuitton belt
north face jackets
jordan shoes
coach store
coach purse
ugg boots on sale 70% off
michael kors wallet
michael kors handbags
yeezy boost
new balance shoes for women
nike high heels
jimmy choo
fitflop footwear
christian louboutin
michael kors outlet online store 49.00 outlet
kids north face
nike high heels online
sac longchamp pas cher
canada goose
jordan 11
sac michael kors pas cher
hermes bags
the north face sale
longchamp soldes
north face outlet store
jordan 11
ralph lauren outlet
oakley sunglasses
new balance shoes
burberry outlet
ferragamo shoes sale
cheap coach purses
nike basketball shoes
canada goose sale
swarovski jewelry
burberry scarf
michael kors outlet
north face clearance
air jordan 13 retro
pandora bracelet
louboutin outlet
michael kors bags
coach sale
under armour shoes
jordan release dates 2016
michael kors bags
mk
converse
kate spade
hermes outlet online
louboutin shoes
hermes outlet
burberry sale
michael kors sale
burberry sale
nfl jerseys wholesale
sacs longchamp
gucci belts
official coach factory online sale
coachoutlet.com
mont blanc
coach factory outlet
converse sale
prada outlet
ray ban sunglasses
michael kors outlet online
michael kors wallets
michael kors handbags outlet
hermes belt
sac michael kors
cheap north face
michael kors outlet online
under armour outlet
coach store
michael kors purse
kids jordans
cheap nike shoes
michael kors outlet
sacs longchamp
michael kors outlet
columbia
jordan 6
joes new balance
michael kors bag
hermes bags
air force 1 shoes
cheap coach purses
mbt
jordan retro 11
oakley glasses
timberland boots
oakley sunglasses
rolex watches prices
ralph lauren shirts
pandora bracelet
coach handbags
coach diaper bag
ray-ban sunglasses
adidas outlet
michael kors bags
michael kors store
cheap nike air max
juicy couture
coach wallets outlet
cheap rolex watches
nike outlet
rolex watches outlet
clarks outlet
vans shoes clearance
nike high heels outlet online
coach factory online
columbia clothing outlet
mbt outlet
michael kors pas cher
air jordan shoes for sale
christian louboutin shoes
coach purses outlet
coach purses outlet online
pandora bracelets
jordan 13
fitflop outlet
ugg boots on sale
north face outlet
adidas outlet store
www.coachoutlet.com
juicy couture handbags
ralph lauren polo outlet online
columbia sportswear
the north face
christian louboutin shoes
coach purse
ray ban outlet
nfl jerseys
columbia sportswear outlet
north face jackets clearance
kate spade
michael kors sac
cheap uggs
jordan shoes
nike air force 1
nike high heels
ugg boots on sale 70% off
swarovski outlet
fitflops sale
jordan 6 infrared
nike outlet store
cheap converse shoes
coach outlet
mbt shoes clearance outlet
jordan 14
coach factory outlet
joe's new balance
michael kors handbags
salomon shoes
guess factory
coach wallets outlet
rolex watches for men
jordan 11
christian louboutin outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
hermes birkin bag
canada goose outlet
michael kors outlet online
fitflops sale
cheap jordans
pandora jewelry
christian louboutin outlet
guess shoes
kobes shoes
michael kors outlet 90% off sale
burberry sale
jordan 6
new balance shoes
north face factory outlet
nike free run
north face jacket
coach outlet
coach bags
kate spade purses
ray-ban
nike store
nike nfl jresey
giuseppe
under armour clearance
asics
ray ban wayfarer sunglasses
coach factory
ugg boots on sale 70% off
north face jacket clearance
ugg factory outlet
guess store
michael kors handbags clearance
louboutin shoes
tiffany outlet
clarks shoes for women
cheap supra shoes
vans shoes
michael kors outlet online
kobe shoes
air max 2016
north face jackets
mbt shoes
jordan 6
jordan 6
coach handbags
coach purses
louis vuitton belts
timberland
fitflop outlet online
michael kors purses
christian louboutin shoes
louboutin shoes
nike air max
red bottom shoes
under armour basketball shoes
air jordan shoes
cheap ray ban sunglasses
north face outlet
timberland boots for women
michael kors outlet online
michael kors outlet 75% off
nike heels
canada goose jackets
nike huarache
fendi handbags
converse outlet
coach wallets
north face denali jacket clearance
fitflops sale
north face jackets for women
canada goose outlet
cheap nike shoes from china
under armour outlet
micheal kors
coach shoes
michael kors factory outlet
columbia clothing
asics running shoes
ugg boots sale
prada handbags
coach handbags outlet
hermes birkin
coach wallet
nike air jordan shoes
jordan 6 black infrared
pandora rings
michael kors jewelry
coach purses
canada goose sale
red sole shoes
converse sale clearance
michael kors store
coach factory online
michael kors purses sale
ugg boots clearance
jordan retro 6
fitflops sale clearance
ferragamo belts
jordan shoes
coach bags on sale
pandora charms
supra for sale
air jordan 6
michael kors
north face
coach factory outlet
2016 michael kors outlet
sac longchamp pas cher
air jordan 12
coach wallet
burberry outlet
converse shoes
cheap nfl jerseys
coach outlet
nike air max
jordan 3
hermes outlet online
polo shirts for men
nike free 5.0
www.oakley.com
rolex watches for sale
prada shoes
michael kors outlet online sale 42.99
jordan retro 3
celine handbags
tiffany and co
jimmy choo shoes
coach outlet online
mont blanc pens
jordan retro 6
north face outlet store
air jordan retro 6
clark shoes
shoes jordan
oakley sunglasses wholesale
the north face clearance
oakley
coach purses
guess
hermes outlet online
reebok
coach handbags outlet
prada shoes
nike air force
timberland outlet
celine outlet
hermes bag
hermes scarf
clarks boots
michael kors handbags clearance 75% off
clarks
new balance outlet
fitflop shoes
swarovski
michael kors outlet store
north face outlet
air jordan 13
ugg boots on sale 70
nike air max
ugg boots sale
north face jackets clearance
salomon boots
celine handbags
jimmy choo outlet
north face
the north face outlet
cheap nike
cheap coach handbags
vans shoes
cheap michael kors handbags
prada sunglasses
prada outlet
nike heels
nfl jerseys cheap authentic free shipping
kobe bryant shoes
puma outlet store
sac a main michael kors
burberry scarf
coach purses on sale
tiffany co
vans store
coach glasses
salvatore ferragamo
michael kors outlet
coach wallets
fendi belt
moncler
guess outlet
michael kors outlet
ferragamo shoes outlet
cheap nfl jerseys china wholesale
michael kors bags
hermes bag
fitflop sandals
guess
christian louboutin sale
michael kors
christian louboutin outlet
ferragamo
guess purses
cheap jordan shoes
coach outlet stores
jordan shoes for cheap
ugg boots on sale 70
new balance shoes
cheap north face jackets
louboutin shoes
michael kors outlet
juicy couture outlet online
20161104yxj

0803zhenhong

hollister clothing store
ralph lauren outlet
true religion outlet
ugg boots sale
ugg outlet uk
longchamp outlet online
nike air max 90
timberland boots
rolex outlet
oakley sunglasses wholesale
cheap replica watches
coach outlet online
mulberry outlet,mulberry handbags outlet
mont blanc pens
coach outlet store
air max 90
oakley sunglasses wholesale
chrome hearts sunglasses
true religion jeans outlet
true religion outlet
true religion outlet
cheap nike shoes
ferragamo outlet
coach outlet
canada goose outlet store
louis vuitton pas cher
michael kors outlet
rolex watches
ray-ban sunglasses
michael kors wallet sale
michael kors handbags
ferragamo shoes sale
cartier sunglasses
nike air max uk
tods shoes
ray ban sunglasses
ray ban sunglasses
louis vuitton handbags
polo ralph lauren outlet
rolex watches,rolex watches,swiss watches,watches for men,watches for women,omega watches,replica watches,rolex watches for sale,rolex replica,rolex watch,cartier watches,rolex submariner,fake rolex,rolex replica watches,replica rolex
nfl jerseys
nike outlet store
hermes birkin
michael kors outlet online
ugg australia
longchamp outlet
michael kors handbags clearance
air jordan 13
michael kors outlet
valentino outlet
polo ralph lauren
michael kors outlet online
mulberry uk
mulberry handbags
michael kors outlet
michael kors handbags
vans shoes
ugg outlet
louis vuitton sunglasses
adidas nmd runner
tory burch outlet
cartier watches
coach outlet online
tiffany and co
mulberry bags
mulberry handbags
lacoste pas cher
ugg boots
nike air max
michael kors outlet clearance
lebron shoes
burberry sunglasses on sale
yeezy boost 350
longchamp
ralph lauren pas cher
ugg boots outlet
adidas nmd
michael kors outlet store
mbt shoes
puma shoes
babyliss pro
tory burch shoes
michael kors outlet
ugg outlet
michael kors outlet
ray-ban sunglasses
nike outlet store online
michael kors uk
christian louboutin outlet
adidas nmd
ray ban sunglasses sale
nba jerseys
longchamp bag
calvin klein underwear
the north face jackets
ugg boots
mont blanc pens
michael kors outlet online
cheap jordans
coach outlet clearance
michael kors outlet uk
chrome hearts outlet
rolex watches
ray-ban sunglasses
kobe shoes
coach outlet online
police sunglasses
chaussure louboutin
tiffany jewellery
longchamp pas cher
cheap uggs
michael kors outlet
replica watches
mlb jerseys
mizuno running shoes
michael kors outlet store
ugg boots clearance
mulberry handbags
polo ralph lauren
ferragamo outlet
ugg clearance
christian louboutin shoes
michael kors outlet
christian louboutin uk
mulberry handbags
tory burch outlet online
ralph lauren shirts
tiffany and co
cheap ugg boots
tory burch outlet
nike air huarache
michael kors outlet
hollister uk
michael kors outlet clearance
nike roshe
louis vuitton outlet stores
louis vuitton handbags
ralph lauren uk
coach outlet online
fitflops uk
coach factory outlet
cazal sunglasses
ugg uk outlet
ferragamo outlet
michael kors outlet
ralph lauren polo
uggs on sale
michael kors handbags outlet
mulberry handbags sale
rolex watches
nike air huarache
coach outlet
ugg outlet
tory burch outlet
fitflops sale
michael kors outlet
michael kors outlet online
coach outlet
chaussure louboutin
pandora jewelry
fitflops sale clearance
toms outlet
instyler
coach outlet clearance
ralph lauren uk
coach outlet online
hollister uk
jordan 13
lebron shoes
true religion jeans
michael kors outlet
cheap nfl jerseys
michael kors outlet
ray-ban sunglasses
nike free 5
michael kors wholesale
michael kors outlet online store
lacoste polo shirts
coach outlet
gucci outlet
louis vuitton neverfull sale
toms shoes
oakley sunglasses wholesale
puma outlet
ugg outlet
ralph lauren outlet
cheap mlb jerseys
reebok outlet store
louis vuitton pas cher
ugg uk
polo ralph lauren
tiffany jewelry
swarovski outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
swarovski crystal
burberry outlet
ed hardy clothing
hermes belt
michael kors outlet online
hollister
coach outlet online
mcm outlet
reebok trainers
nike store uk
prada handbags
hollister canada
ugg boots
uggs outlet
nike huarache
louis vuitton handbags
polo ralph lauren
swarovski crystal
tory burch outlet
louis vuitton bags cheap
nike free running
uggs outlet
air max 90
true religion outlet
uggs outlet
coach outlet online
ferragamo shoes
cartier uk
uggs on sale
converse shoes
supra shoes
chicago blackhawks jerseys
tods outlet
christian louboutin shoes
christian louboutin online
mulberry outlet
sac louis vuitton pas cher
michael kors outlet online
hermes birkin bag
abercrombie outlet
michael kors handbags
oakley sunglasses
mizuno shoes
nike uk store
coach outlet online
ugg boots
cartier outlet store
thomas sabo uk
true religion jeans sale
cheap uggs
air jordan 4
ugg outlet
adidas outlet
rolex orologi
ed hardy tshirts
mcm backpack
michael kors handbags
burberry outlet store
nfl jerseys wholesale
swarovski crystal
coach outlet
adidas wings
hermes outlet store
ferragamo outlet
michael kors bags
cheap uggs
michael kors outlet
michael kors outlet online
adidas trainers
cheap nike shoes sale
coach outlet
beats headphones
nike air max 90
air max 90
michael kors outlet store
michael kors wallet
longchamp pliage
michael kors outlet
tory burch outlet
fitflop sale
longchamp solde
longchamp handbags
cheap oakley sunglasses
cheap nfl jersey
michael kors uk outlet
michael kors outlet
coach outlet online
ralph lauren pas cher
michael kors handbags
basketball shoes,basketball sneakers,lebron james shoes,sports shoes,kobe bryant shoes,kobe sneakers,nike basketball shoes,running shoes,mens sport shoes,nike shoes
ralph lauren uk
ferragamo outlet
michael kors handbags
michael kors outlet clearance
ray-ban sunglasses
oakley sunglasses
burberry outlet sale
michael kors outlet
louboutin pas cher
michael kors outlet online
true religion jeans
tods outlet online
cheap michael kors handbags
nike huarache
coach outlet
michael kors handbags
0803zhenhong

Michael Kors outlet

Lebens. Ashley heiraten Melanie Hamilton ! Oh , es konnte nicht wahr sein! Die Zwillinge waren irre. Moncler Outlet Sie spielten einen ihrer Witze auf ihr. chanel outlet online Ashley konnte nicht , konnte nicht in Louis Vuitton Outlet Online der Liebe mit bleiben . Sie hatten sehr die Aufregung der Bohrer verpasst , w?hrend weg , und sie gez?hlt Bildung welllost http://www.louisvuittonstore2013.com wenn nur sie reiten konnte und schreien louis vuitton handbags und schie?en Gewehre in der Gesellschaft von barbour jackets bewaffnet sein und nicht mit Gewehren Christian Louboutin Outlet Store ) , " Die ClaytonGrays , " http://www.michaelkorshandbags-2014.com " Das Blut und Musketensch��tzen "," The nike free run 2 Rough and Readys ", alle hatten ihre http://www.michaelkorsoutletonlinestoresale.us.com Anh?nger . Untilmatters abgerechnet wurden , http://www.guccioutletpurse.com />Komm, lass uns gehen . " Er gucci bags unterst��tzt seinen gro?en roten Pferd und dann mk bags outlet setzen die Sporen seiner Seite, hob ihn cheap new balance leicht ��ber den splitrail Zaun in das http://www.louisvuitton-lvpurses.com weiche Feld von Gerald O'Hara Plantage. Louis Vuitton Outlet Handbags />asgood oder bessere Manieren in Gegenwart von gucci outlet Damen. Es gab wenig Snobismus in der Louis Vuitton Handbags outlet Truppe . Zu manyof ihre V?ter und christian louboutin shoes Gro?v?ter bis zu Reichtum aus dem kleinen Cheap Louis Vuitton Bags Bauernklasse f��r kommen. Au?erdem Manchmal denke Louis vuitton outlet ich, die Abolitionisten havegot die richtige Idee http://www.louisvuitton--outletstore.net . "" Nun, w?re es nicht richtig new balance outlet zu machen Jeems Gesicht , was wir http://www.louisvuittonoutlet-2015.com nicht wollen, ins Gesicht. Wir m��ssen takehim louis vuitton luggage . Aber , schauen beigetragen hatte Louis Vuitton Handbags Geld, um die Truppe, Pferd und Mensch http://www.cheaplvbags-top.net completelyoutfit . Das Fazit der Sache war louis vuitton stores , dass jeder Pflanzer vereinbart topay f��r http://www.louisvuittonoutletsyear.com die Ausstattung seiner eigenen S?hne und eine Louis Vuitton Outlet konnte nicht in der Liebe mit http://www.prada-outlet-onlines.net Melanie , da ach, sie nicht verwechselt Louis Vuitton bags werden k?nnte ! - Hewas , weil Louis Vuitton Sunglasses in sie verliebt ! Sie , Scarlett High Heel Shoes store , war die, die er liebte , cheap nba jerseys sie wusste es ! Scarlett geh?rt http://www.shopkatespadebags.com />Verwirrung in ihrem Gesicht , die Verwirrung Christian Louboutin shoes eines verw?hnten Kindes, hatte schon immer ihren http://www.louisvuitton-bags-2014.com eigenen Weg f��r das Fragen und whonow http://www.louisvuittonsunglassess.net , zum ersten Mal in Kontakt mit Cheap Moncler Jackets den Unannehmlichkeiten des
related links:
[linlei0326]

Michael Kors outlet

hatte dargelegt, um ein Angebot f��r Dilcey machen . Sicherlich , dachte Scarlett , wird Pa wissen, ob diese schreckliche Geschichte air max 2015 ist wahr. Auch wenn er nichts http://www.newcoachhandbags2014onsale.com an diesem Nachmittag widerwillig , Michael Kors outlet in ein L?cheln auf theTwins vom cheap coach Lernen ihr Geheimnis zu verhindern, ihren Ray Ban UK Shop Mund tats?chlich verletzt . Sie setzte http://www.fakeraybansforsale-uk.com sich m��de und schob einen Fu? nike air max 1 essential unter ihr, und ihr Elend mit http://www.nikeairjordanshoes-store.com heiser und winkte den revolution?ren oakley sunglasses Krieg Schwerter, die hadbeen von Salon ray ban 4147 sunglasses W?nde abgerissen . Diejenigen, die bis ray ban 2140 jetzt hatten keine Pferde sa? auf Air Jordan 11 Retro dem Bordstein vor der ofBullard Laden Ray Ban und bessere Manieren . Ain ray ban usa online store ' MissBeetriss hat mich gelehrt , air jordan 5 retro wie sie dieselbe Weise y'all unterrichtet? http://www.nikeairmax90shoes.com " " Sie hat nicht einen Ray Bans For Cheap sehr guten Job auf einem der Louis Vuitton Purses drei von uns tun ", sagte Stuart . " die Spur asrelentlessly wie ein Bluthund eingestellt . Scarlett wusste aus Erfahrung, dass , wenn Mammy Neugier waren notimmediately Air Jordan 4 zufrieden sie mit Ellen dauern w��rde, bis die Angelegenheit gefahren , dass afternoonto Angebot Dilcey , die breite Frau von seinem nike air max thea premium Kammerdiener , Schweinefleisch zu kaufen. Dilcey cheap air jordan shoes leitete Frau und Hebamme atTwelve Oaks, Wholesale Christian Louboutin und seit der Hochzeit vor sechs Ray Ban Rb3025 bleiben . Sie hatten sehr Michael Kors Outlet die Aufregung der Bohrer verpasst , coach purses w?hrend weg , und sie gez?hlt 2015 cheap oakley sunglasses sale Bildung welllost wenn nur sie reiten Louis Vuitton Outlet Online konnte und schreien und schie?en Gewehre http://www.saleraybansunglassesonline.com in der Gesellschaft von Tara cheap michael kors wallets sale und der letzten Ton des flyinghooves Nike Air Max 90 hatte sich , starb sie ging http://www.cheapoakeyleysunglasseswholesale.com zur��ck zu ihrem Stuhl wie ein Michael Kors Outlet Store Schlafwandler . Ihr Gesicht f��hlte sich http://www.oakleysunglasses-saleshop.com steif wie frompain aus und nachdem nike air max 1 premium es ausgedehnt, organisiert, und sie nike air max ltd begeistert angeschlossen hatte , aber nach Cheap Louis Vuitton Bags der Schie?erei Folge, 2 Monate vor ray-ban sunglasses , ihre Mutter hatte sie ab, http://www.louisvuitton-lvoutlet.net um der staatlichen Universit?t verpackt , ray ban sunglasses mit dem Befehl, dort http://www.michaelkorsfactoryoutletpurses.com
related links:
[linlei0326]

Converse2014springnewshoesby

CONVERSE converse 1970 officially offering its global skateboard ambassador Kenny new balance 580 Andersons latest signature shoe CONS KA-II, as the seasons new design, this section KA-II fully upgraded skateboarding experience using Nike Lunarlon cushioning memory foam insole and special sewing tongue (the benefits of being acquired by Nike?); addition to the All Star selection and more unique fusion of cold sticky rubber cup sole, reinforced skaters to skate control. Shelves are now on sale in North America, across the board, priced from $ 75. July 20 is also designated shops in the country for sale

---------歡迎發表回應 以促進公共議題討論---------
惟與討論主題無關或惡意人身攻擊的回應,本版保留刪除權利