台灣未來選舉時程的問題

林繼文
中央研究院政治所籌備處

2005年6月7日,任務型國民大會以249票贊成、48票反對的票數,複決通過了立法院在2004年8月23日所通過的憲法修正提案。其要項為: (1)由人民複決立法院所提出之修憲案或領土變更案(第1條);(2)複決立法院修憲提案的通過門檻為總選舉人半數以上同意(第12條);(3)立法院提出之正副總統彈劾案,由憲法法庭審理;(4)自第七屆起,立法委員席次減半為113席,任期四年,保障婦女名額佔不分區至少一半,區域立委73人,每縣市至少一人,全國不分區及僑居國外國民依政黨名單投票選舉(第4條)。其中最重要的有兩項。第一,第4條規定,將來的立委選舉,台灣將以所謂的「並立式單一選區兩票制」,以單一選區制選出73名區域代表,並以全國為選區的封閉式名單比例代表制選出34名代表,再加上6席原住民代表,共計113席。其次,第 12條規定廢除國民大會,將來修憲要透過人民複決,而其通過門檻為總選舉人半數以上同意。根據這兩個條文,未來修憲將比第七次修憲更困難。我們甚至可以假設,單一選區兩票制和半總統制就是未來台灣憲政架構的兩大主軸,分別規範國會議員的產生以及行政部門的權責。

依照各國經驗可知,未來台灣的並立式單一選區兩票制很可能會導致兩大黨制。問題在於,如果此一選制搭配半總統制,對於憲政體制運作的影響為何?從學理和經驗來看,行政和立法兩權同時選舉,可以增加一致政府出現的機率,並提升憲政穩定。那麼,台灣未來的選舉究竟比較接近同時選舉,還是類似期中選舉?根據第七次修憲的結果,台灣未來將出現一種「先國會後總統」(或謂「反蜜月選舉」anti-honeymoon)的選舉時程。修改後的憲法第4條規定,立法委員自第七屆起任期四年。為符合憲法規定「立法院會期,每年兩次,自行集會。第一次自二月至五月底,第二次自九月至十二月底」的規定,立委改選時間必須在就任前的前一年年底,或最晚不能超過次年年初。再以總統來看,任期四年,就職日為五月二十日,所以選舉日期為就任年之三月。依此時程,除非立法院尚未屆滿任期就被解散,或是有另一次修憲改變總統或立委任期,從下屆立委改選開始,立委選舉都是在總統選舉的前三個月舉行,而且此一模式會持續下去。

這樣的時程,和同時選舉仍有若干差距。在分析其效應前,應先討論有無將其修改成同時選舉的可能。根據1997年通過的憲法增修條文第二條,總統任期四年。因為之前的總統都是在五月二十日就職,所以之後的總統也需在同日就職方能符合憲法規定。換言之,除非修憲,總統就職日是不能變動的。更重要的是,就算能勉強調整時程,還有其它的問題存在。依照慣例,內閣都會在總統改選和國會改選後總辭。如果同時選舉一併更換了行政和立法部門的執政黨。理論上,行政院必須在國會產生新的多數黨後辭職,但是新總統就職後卻還要總辭一次。比較可行的作法,應是由新多數黨組閣,新總統就任後仍留任同一行政院長。但是否需經辭職的動作,卻仍有爭議。如果同時選舉仍導致分立政府,問題會更難處理。第一,假設國會多數黨改變,總統仍為同黨所勝。理論上,行政院長必須總辭,以彰顯國會黨派結構的改變。但是他卻可能和新當選的總統屬於同一政黨,呈現另一種正當性的基礎。第二,假設國會多數黨未變,總統卻由另一黨勝選。此時如果行政院長留任至新總統就職,就會形成長達四個月的看守內閣。此時原有內閣和國會能否通過重大的法案或預算?法理上是可以的,但是正當性卻有問題。

所以,未來要調整台灣的選舉時程有重大的技術困難,即使能調整,還是會產生相當多的難題。如果未來的時程就是「立委選舉後三個月選總統」,其憲政效應為何?可分以下幾點論之:

第一,總統選舉會帶領立委選舉。如果兩場選舉只隔三個月,國會選舉非常可能成為總統選舉的前哨戰。此時總統選舉的候選人早已確定,且已進入議程設定的競逐戰。如果主要競爭者的實力接近,我們可以從兩方面來評估總統選舉對立委選舉的磁吸效應。首先,區域部分的立委採取單一選區制,同黨不可能提名一人以上。再加上總統候選人此時已進入短兵相接的階段,大多數政黨提名的立委候選人都必須和該黨總統候選人並肩作戰。一方面,總統候選人的知名度高於立委候選人,所以後者很可能要搭前者的便車。另一方面,各黨也多會提名具有地方實力的立委候選人,所以總統候選人會以其知名度和擁有地方實力的立委候選人互相拉抬。在此情勢下,總統選舉的議題應會帶引立委選舉,沒有總統候選人站台的立委候選人,勢必難以當選。若然,選民對於總統候選人的評價,應會影響其在立委選舉的投票抉擇。

第二,立委選舉的敗者不易在總統選舉翻盤。總統選舉固然會主導立委選舉,但後者的結果會先揭曉。在立委選舉落敗的政黨,有無可能利用這個結果,鼓勵其支持者在總統選舉「翻盤」?如果主要競爭者實力非常接近,這種可能性不是沒有,但是機率並不高。第一,國會選舉的得票率一般而言會比總統選舉低。立委選舉的敗者,當然希望未投票的選民中有人會在總統選舉時投票給該黨。但是立委選舉的贏家也會對其潛在的支持者發出類似的訴求。立委選舉是在每個選區進行,即使有爭議或弊端,也不容易激勵選民大規模的出來翻盤。所以,投票率的差距不見得對敗者有利。第二,某些選民可能是「制衡者」,不希望看到國會和總統被同一政黨所控制,所以會採取分裂投票的策略,在總統選舉時改變投票對象。此種策略如果能影響總統選舉結果,除了競爭者實力必須非常接近外,制衡論者的數量也不能太少。以台灣而言,如果將來朝向兩大黨制演進,社會又以國家認同為主要分歧,會有幾項重要的後果:政黨會有一定的理念差距並影響其支持者;黨紀會增強,連帶強化選民會的政黨認同;國會受制於此分歧,阻礙跨黨聯盟的建構。這些因素,都會減低制衡選民的數目。

第三,未來的國會選舉不太容易變成總統選舉的第一輪投票,小黨仍可能存在,但生存空間將受到緊縮。有學者認為以後的立委選舉會變成總統選舉的第一輪投票,但忽略了立委選舉是在每個選區進行的,所以小黨難由同一個總統候選人在每個選區都替其立委候選人造勢。所以,小黨很難把立委選舉當成第一輪總統投票,因為其勝選機率不高。然而,台灣未來的立委選舉制度並非全然的單一選區制。得票率很低的黨,仍有機會贏得以比例代表方式分配的34席全國不分區席次。要取得選民的政黨票,小黨可以採取兩項競選策略。第一,提醒策略性選民他們的第二票(政黨票),可以作為他們在區域選舉放棄該黨的補償。第二,小黨甚至也可推出總統候選人,一方面替立委選舉的候選人造勢,另一方面威脅和其立場相近的大黨。當大黨實力相近時,小黨的選票對總統選舉仍可發揮關鍵作用。小黨採取此一策略,可迫使大黨做出某些讓步(如職位分配、政策調整等),也可促使選民將政黨票投給該黨。但即使如此,小黨的席次率仍會比目前滑落許多。一個在全台灣有10%實力的小黨,能贏得三到四席的全國不分區席次,就已經相當不錯了;要在單一選區勝選,困難更大。所以,台灣的政黨體系,應該會朝向兩大多小發展,由單一政黨掌握國會多數的機率應該比目前更高。此外,政黨的黨紀也會因單一選區制增強。從台灣行政首長(如總統、縣市長)選舉的經驗可以得知,分裂的政黨很少有勝選的機會。因為當選門檻高,脫黨或跳黨參選者也不像在複數選區制下那麼容易當選。同理,黨中央在新選舉制度下的重要性將大幅增加,對於在國會中違反黨紀者,只要不予提名即可達到懲戒的目的。再加上全國不分區採用封閉式名單比例代表制,且由人民的政黨票決定當選席次,政黨的影響力勢必加重,甚至可以將不遵守黨紀者開除,由名單順位遞補。另一方面,黨紀的強化可以提升反對黨發動不信任投票的動機,增加制衡行政部門的工具。

綜合上述,台灣未來出現分立政府(即國會多數黨和總統政黨不一)的機率並不是很高。由於國會選舉和總統選舉時間非常接近,再加上國會選舉的輸家不容易在總統選舉翻盤,贏得國會選舉多數席次的政黨很可能也是總統選舉的獲勝者。同時選舉雖然更能促成一致政府的形成,並降低選舉成本,但修法的技術困難必須先予以克服。

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Father Vasili's slits of eyes focussed on Michael Kors purses the other four.
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No one had seen him do it, but the priest had guessed at once who was to blame.
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Yefrem Vasilievich, michael kors outlet online sale store the headmaster, poked his head out of the open window of the common room and shouted: "Send Korchagin to me at once!" Pavel jumped at the new balance factory outlet sound of the headmaster's deep bass voice, and with pounding heart obeyed his summons.
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"Let him start in today," ordered the proprietor and, turning to the woman behind the counter, Michael Kors Outlet said: "Zina, take the boy to the kitchen and tell Frosya to put him to work instead of Grishka."
The barmaid laid down the knife with louis vuitton store 2015 which she had been slicing ham, nodded to Pavel and led the way across the hall to a side door opening into the scullery. Pavel followed Louis Vuitton Outlet Store her. His mother hurried after him and whispered quickly into his ear: "Now Pavlushka, dear, do your best, and don't disgrace yourself."
With sad eyes she Louis Vuitton Outlet Online watched him go, and left. Work in the scullery was in full swing; plates, forks and knives were piled high on the table and several women new balance factory store were wiping them with towels flung over their shoulders. A boy slightly older than Pavel, with a shaggy mop of ginger hair, was tending two huge Louis Vuitton Bags samovars.
The scullery was full of steam that rose from the large vat of boiling water in which the dishes were washed, and Pavel could not gucci outlet online see the faces of the women at first. He stood waiting uncertainly for someone to tell him what to do.
Zina., the barmaid, went over to http://www.wholesalemichaelkorsbags-online.com one of the dishwashers and touched her shoulder.
"Here, Frosya, I've brought you a new boy to take Grishka's place. You tell him what he's to Michael Kors Purses do."
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"She seems quite decent," he concluded, Michael Kors sandals and overcoming his shyness, said: "What am I to do now,Auntie?"
A loud guffaw from the dishwashers met his words.
"Ha! Ha! Frosya's gone and got herself a prada outlet nephew. . . ."
Frosya herself laughed even more heartily than the others.
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"Come over here and help dry the forks," said one http://www.oakleyoutletsonsales.com of the dishwashers, a middle-aged woman.
"Stop your cackling," she admonished the others. "The lad didn't say anything funny. Here, take this." She handed Pavel a dish LV Purses towel. "Hold one end between your teeth and pull the other end tight. Here's a fork, run it up and down the towel, and see you michael kors outlet don't leave any dirt between the prongs. They're very strict about that here. The customers always inspect the forks and if they find a speck of Louis Vuitton wallets dirt, they make a terrible fuss, and the mistress will send you flying out in a jiffy."
"The mistress?" Pavel echoed. "I thought the master who hired http://www.newbalance-factory-outlet.com me was in charge."
The dishwasher laughed.
"The master, my lad, is just a stick of furniture around here. The mistress is the boss. She isn't here today. Louis Vuitton Handbags But if you work here a while you'll see for yourself."
The scullery door opened and three waiters entered carrying trays piled high with dirty dishes.
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He looked at Pavel. "Who's this?" he asked.
"That's the new boy," said Frosya.
"Ah, the new boy," he said. "Well, listen, my lad." He laid his Louis Vuitton Bags 2015 heavy hands on Pavel's shoulders and pushed him over to the samovars. "You're supposed to keep them boiling all the time, and look, one of them's http://www.oakleyoutlet-discount.com out, and the other is barely going. Don't let it happen again or I'll beat the stuffings out of you!"
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His adversary cowered back against Louis Vuitton Store the boiler, gaping with surprise at the bristling Pavel. He had not expected such a determined rebuff.
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